\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 557 Bluesword Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(688557) )
Event:
The company released the first quarterly report of 22 years, realizing an operating revenue of 118 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123.13%; The loss of net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.1641 million yuan, which was converted from profit to loss; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company was -7.3923 million yuan, and the loss increased by 5.3137 million yuan year-on-year.
In the first quarter, the revenue doubled year-on-year, and the short-term loss mainly came from the decline of gross profit margin and the increase of R & D expenses
The company achieved an operating revenue of 118 million yuan in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 123.13%, slightly exceeding our expectations, but the profit scale did not improve significantly with the high increase of operating revenue. There are two reasons behind it. First, the company's 22q1 gross profit margin is only 23.77%, which is significantly lower than 39.76% in the same period last year. We believe that the decline of gross profit margin or the rise in the price of raw materials such as steel and the intensification of industrial competition. With the expansion of the company's order scale, the bargaining power over the upstream is expected to increase, and the fluctuation of gross profit margin is expected to decrease; Second, the company's R & D expenses have increased significantly compared with the same period last year. The R & D expenses of 22q1 company are 24.68 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 126.26%. We believe that this is the result of the company's continuous investment in R & D and the expansion of the scale of R & D team. With the arrival of the subsequent peak season and the launch of raised production capacity, the cost rate will probably improve.
The increase of contract liabilities indicates that the prosperity continues to improve, and the diversified layout ensures long-term growth
The scale of orders on hand by the end of 21h1 and 21 was 960 million yuan and 984 million yuan respectively; From the perspective of contract liabilities, the contract liabilities of 21h1, the end of 21 and 22q1 companies were 69 million yuan, 186 million yuan and 206 million yuan respectively. It can be seen that the company's operation is in good condition and the order scale is in the trend of continuous expansion. From the perspective of downstream industries, in the past 21 years, the company has continued to obtain orders in large-scale retail, medicine, e-commerce, automobile, petrochemical, tobacco, aerospace and other industries. At the same time, it has made breakthroughs in key fields such as new energy, communication equipment, agriculture and animal husbandry, household appliances, construction machinery, food and household appliances, and further realized the diversification of downstream industries. We believe that the diversification of downstream industries is the guarantee for the long-term growth of the company, If the dependence on a single industry is too high, the growth of the company will fall into passivity when the prosperity of the downstream industry decreases.
Investment suggestions:
The scale of orders on hand at the end of the year 21 indicates that the company has a high probability of achieving high growth in revenue in 22 years, and the increase of R & D expenses or the performance of expanding the scale of R & D team for raising and investing production capacity in advance. With the operation of the company's super factory, the cost rate of the company is expected to decline rapidly, and the ceiling of operating revenue will be opened accordingly. We believe that the intelligent warehousing and logistics system industry has a long slope and thick snow. The company's core values centered on R & D are expected to help the company achieve relatively stable long-term growth, maintain the net profit forecast of 125 million and 186 million yuan from 2022 to 2023, and introduce the net profit forecast of 249 million yuan in 2024, corresponding to PE valuation of 18.04, 12.12 and 9.06x, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips: the launch progress of raised investment projects is less than expected, the impact of raw material price fluctuations is more than expected, the epidemic situation in China is more than expected, and the transportation cost is more than expected.
