\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 51 Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) )
The year-on-year operating income of the parent company was RMB 18.94 billion, with a year-on-year return of RMB 18.94 billion and a year-on-year return of RMB 2.405 billion, with a year-on-year return of + 2.405 billion to the parent company and a year-on-year deduction of + 2.405 billion; Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 50.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.44%, 7.419 billion yuan to the parent, a year-on-year increase of – 12.47%, and 7.088 billion yuan to the non parent, a year-on-year decrease of – 8%. A cash dividend of 20 yuan will be distributed for every 10 shares. In Q1 of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 35.535 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.02%, 4.003 billion yuan attributable to the parent company, a year-on-year increase of + 16.28%, and 3.775 billion yuan not attributable to the parent company, a year-on-year increase of + 14.4%.
Situation in 21 years: there is still pressure on the main industry of air conditioning, and diversified businesses drive the growth rate
In terms of business, in the past 21 years, the company’s main business of air conditioning achieved revenue of 131.7 billion (+ 14%), household appliances of 4.9 billion (+ 8%), industrial products of 3.2 billion (+ 39%), intelligent equipment of 860 million (+ 43%), green energy of 2.91 billion (+ 63%), and other businesses of 43.03 billion (+ 13.9%). In terms of core main business air conditioning: according to the split, we believe that the income of air conditioning + industrial products disclosed in the 21 year report is the air conditioning business of the original caliber, so the original main business of air conditioning is 21h1 + 62%, 21h2-9.3%, suggesting that the main business of air conditioning still has certain pressure due to the weak industry, especially due to the spread of the epidemic and the downturn of real estate since the second half of the year. Specifically: 1) the price increase in domestic sales is an important factor. Industry online 21 overall + 6.8% (21h1 + 24.5%, h2-5.5%). The ex factory price of the company’s air conditioner in 21 years is expected to increase driven by energy efficiency upgrading and direct price increase (Aowei’s online / offline average price is + 16.6% / 6.3% year-on-year respectively). 2) In terms of export, industry online 21 as a whole + 3.8% (21h1 + 3.7%, H2 + 4.2%), an increase over 19 years. 3) The central air conditioning business is expected to increase. Industrial online data company’s multi online business increased by + 18% year-on-year. In other businesses, H2 of household appliances increased by + 16% year-on-year, suggesting that the development of household appliances accelerated in the second half of the year; Industrial products grew better; The higher growth rate of new energy business is expected to be related to the consolidation of Gree titanium.
Profit side: in 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 24.28%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.86pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 12.2%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.8pct. The rising cost affects the profitability of the company (air conditioning gross profit level -3.09pcts). At the same time, the company’s non air conditioning business grows rapidly, while the gross profit margin of 2B such as green energy (6.11% in 21 years) is low, which also affects the gross profit. In 2021, the company’s sales, management, R & D and financial expense rates were 6.11%, 2.14%, 3.32% and – 1.19% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.54, + 0.02, -0.23 and -0.06pct.
22q1: performance growth exceeded expectations, and cash flow is still under pressure
Revenue side: 22q1 company achieved revenue of 35.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 6% at the same time. We expect the air conditioning business to recover compared with 21h2: 1) the growth rate of 1q export is better than that of domestic sales. Export shipment + 9%, and the average price is expected to increase; 2) Domestic price factors continue to dominate. 22q1 company’s domestic shipments were – 12%, and the actual shipments may be slightly better than this figure. In terms of price, Aowei online / offline were + 5.1% / + 12.6% year-on-year respectively; 3) The growth rate of central air conditioning business is faster than that of household air conditioning, and the industrial online 22q1 is + 100% year-on-year.
Profit side: the gross profit margin of Q1 in 22 years was 23.66%, year-on-year -0.77pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 11.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1PCT. The company’s Q1 sales, management, R & D and financial expense rates in 2022 were 5.5%, 3.49%, 3.72% and – 1.59% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -2.28, + 0.98, -0.26 and + 0.48pct. The decrease of gross profit level is expected to be related to the adjustment of accounting standards (21q4 has been adjusted). The gross sales difference in 22q1 was 18.7%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.4pcts and a month on month increase of -2.9pcts. The improvement of gross sales difference indicates that the profit level of the company has been repaired after the continuous price increase of air conditioning.
Investment suggestions: on the one hand, as a leader in the air conditioning industry, the company is deepening channel reform and gradually restoring brand competitiveness. In the future, with the gradual easing of factors inhibiting industry demand such as real estate downturn and cost, the growth rate of the company’s revenue performance may increase. On the other hand, the company diversified frequently, developing energy storage, thermal management and other businesses, which is expected to open the second growth curve and develop into a diversified industrial group. We estimate that the net profit of the company in 22-24 years is 27.5/299/31.5 billion yuan / 22-23 years ago (the value was 26.2/29 billion yuan), corresponding to pe6.6 billion yuan 7 / 6.2 / 5.9x, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the promotion of new products is less than expected, the risk of macroeconomic slowdown, the risk of overseas demand is less than expected, and the risk of raw material price fluctuation
