\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 020 Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) )
The profit end of 21 years was slightly lower than our expectation, and the performance of 22q1 was slightly higher than the market expectation
In 2021, the company realized revenue of 3.345 billion yuan (+ 25.35%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 189 million yuan (+ 10.83%); The non net profit deducted was 115 million yuan (- 10.47%); Among them, 21q4 achieved an income of 831 million yuan (+ 16.98%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.57 million yuan (- 18.37%). The company’s income is in line with our previous expectations, and the profit is slightly lower than our expectations (expected to be 200 million in 21 years). It is mainly due to the relocation of the company’s factories and the elimination of some equipment due to aging, resulting in a loss of fixed assets of 7 million +; And the impairment of goodwill formed in the current period.
22q1 achieved an income of 786 million yuan (- 4.09%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 47.21 million yuan (- 22.24%). Under the background of 21q1 high base, the company’s 22q1 performance is slightly higher than the market expectation.
In 21 years, the essence business grew steadily, and the food ingredients business grew rapidly
In the year of 21, essence business realized a revenue of 556million yuan (+7.78%); The spice business achieved a revenue of 224 million yuan (- 5.90%); The revenue of food ingredients business was 2.546 billion yuan (+ 34.26%). From the perspective of splitting, we expect the company’s food ingredients trade to achieve a revenue of 1.944 billion yuan (+ 32.6%); In the food ingredients manufacturing business, the chocolate business is expected to achieve 456 million yuan (+ 42.2%), and the jam business is expected to achieve 146 million yuan (+ 34%).
22q1 essence business: revenue of 125million yuan (-9.38%); The spice business achieved a revenue of 56 million yuan (- 6.50%); The food ingredients business realized a revenue of 600 million yuan (- 2.39%).
Affected by the rising cost of raw materials, the gross and net profit margin of the company decreased slightly
Gross profit margin: in 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 16.02% (-0.86pct), and in 22q1, the gross profit margin was 16.88% (-1.85pct). The gross profit rate decreased slightly, mainly due to the rising cost of raw materials.
Expense rate: during 2021, the expense rate is 8.80% (-0.02pct), and the expense rates of sales / management / R & D / finance are 3.18% (+ 0.01pct), 4.37% (-0.17pct), 1.19% (-0.08pct) and – 0.05% (+ 0.21pct) respectively; During 22q1, the expense rate was 7.94% (+ 0.79%), and the expense rates of sales / management / R & D / finance were 2.87% (+ 0.43pct), 3.83% (+ 0.64pct), 1.41% (+ 0.02pct) and – 0.17% (- 0.29pct) respectively.
Net interest rate: the net interest rate will be 6.97% (-0.26pct) in 2021 and 7.48% (-1.94pct) in 22q1.
During the business adjustment period, we look forward to the continuous recovery of subsequent performance
The company is currently in the period of business adjustment and looks forward to the continuous implementation of subsequent related businesses and the continuous recovery of performance. 1) Essence business: the company’s tobacco essence business is applying for an e-cigarette license and expects to continue to contribute to its performance in the future; Secondly, the company’s essence factory is being relocated (Shanghai Jiangxi), which has a slight impact on the essence business in the short term; 2) Due to the expansion of new production capacity, the chocolate business of the company has been delayed due to the impact of the epidemic in the short term. In 22 years, we expect to release 5000 tons of chocolate production capacity. 3) AICE holding (holding 9.93%) is the largest ice cream factory in Indonesia. With the company’s second round of financing, the value and valuation of AICE are gradually improving, and there is still room for subsequent appreciation (AICE contributes 40 million + of the income from changes in fair value in 21 years), which will give the company greater income.
Overall, we believe that the company’s short-term impact on the release of production capacity and the pace of business adjustment due to the epidemic and rising costs has a certain impact, but it is expected to recover with the improvement of the epidemic..
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that the impact of the epidemic on performance and cost pressure are still large, we slightly lowered our previous profit forecast and gave a “overweight” rating. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 3.777/45.37/5.378 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12.93% / 20.12% / 18.53% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 209 / 254 / 308 million yuan respectively (the value was 271 / 332 million yuan respectively 22-23 years ago), with a year-on-year increase of 10.62% / 21.86% / 20.94% respectively. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.54/0.66/0.80 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 17.46/14.33/11.85 times respectively.
Risk tip: covid-19 epidemic repeatedly affects terminal demand, and the cost of raw materials continues to rise.
