\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report and 2022 quarterly report. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.414 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 86.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 893 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 81.75%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 886 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 101.50%. In Q1 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 86.04%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 521 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 94.46%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 94.84%.
In 2021, revenue side: in terms of products, the operating revenue of internal ginseng / drunkard / Xiangquan / other series was 10.34/19.15/176279 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 80.71% / 88.94% / 11.71% / 255.92%. The creation of large single products and high-quality products has achieved remarkable results; In terms of channels, online channel sales are 223 million yuan and offline channel sales are 3.192 billion yuan. The innovative model of characteristic channels has achieved initial results. Expense side: the sales / management / R & D expense ratio is 25.18% / 5.34% / 0.30%, and the sales / management / R & D expense is + 102.93% / + 25.10% / – 6.34% year-on-year. The significant increase in sales expense is due to the increase in revenue and investment.
In Q1 2022, the revenue side: the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.04%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 521 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.46%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 520 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 94.84%, and the profitability increased significantly. Expense side: the sales / management expense ratio was 21.81% / 1.73%, year-on-year -1.58% / – 49.48%.
The company insists on deeply cultivating the base market, breaking through the highland market, vigorously attracting investment and layout, and accelerating the process of nationalization. In 2021, there were 1256 dealers, 493 more than that in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 60%; There are 1256 contracted customers (including exclusive stores), an increase of 473 customers compared with 2020, a year-on-year increase of 60%. The number of core terminal outlets reached 19752, a year-on-year increase of 137%. The market coverage of prefecture level cities in China is 67%, and that of county-level cities in Hunan is 94%.
Looking forward to 2022, as the opening year of the “14th five year plan”, with “high quality and high growth” as the goal, the Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ; Strengthen the base, break through the highland, optimize the layout of large businesses, accelerate the nationwide layout, and strive for 1.5 billion level base market, 1 billion level provincial market and three 500 million level base markets; Focus on individual products, establish an image, and build a leading Baijiu enterprise with rich flavor.
Investment suggestions: we believe that the overall situation of the Baijiu industry is stable and good, the industrial concentration is further improved, and the positioning of drunkards and internal reference is clear. The company adheres to the development strategy of “big business and excellent business” and speeds up the nationwide layout. The number of customers has increased significantly, and the process of nationalization has accelerated. The trend of large single products is presented step by step, creating a fragrant Baijiu, and injecting new vitality into the further nationalization of the company. We estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 5.1/6.7 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.4/2 billion yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, food safety risks, market expansion not up to expectations, increased market investment in competitive products, intensified competition, repeated impact of the epidemic on consumption, etc
