\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 732 Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) )
Key investment points:
Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) is a leading manufacturer focusing on photovoltaic cell products, with a shipment of 18.85gw in 2021, ranking second in the industry, and perc cell mass production efficiency of 23.5%, continuing to lead the industry average. The company has a perc capacity of 36gw, and the proportion of large-size types will reach more than 95%. In 2022q1, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 230 million yuan, with a single w net profit of about 2-3 points, and the quarterly performance has been reversed.
Large size perc cell will realize dilemma reversal. In 2021, the profitability of the battery industry reached the bottom, the expansion speed of the industry capacity slowed down significantly, and the production capacity of large-size perc batteries became more scarce. Since 2022q1, the demand of photovoltaic industry has continued to pick up, the price increase of large-size cells has led, and the profitability has recovered rapidly. This year is a period of technological transformation of photovoltaic cells, and the technical route is still controversial. Cell manufacturers dare not expand their production rashly. The actual output guidance of various new technology products is lower than the industry demand increment, the profitability of large-scale perc in the second half of the year may exceed expectations, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) large-scale perc accounts for a relatively high proportion and continues to benefit.
The orderly advancement of ABC technology will give the company new vitality. ABC technology is a new type of high-efficiency back battery technology based on IBC. At present, it has the capacity of 300MW ABC battery test line, and the maximum efficiency of the laboratory is 26.1%. 2022q3 company will mass produce GW level ABC new technology products, and the conversion efficiency is expected to be about 25.5%, which is higher than the average mass production efficiency of new technologies in the current market. The new battery products are expected to achieve a premium of 3-4 cents / W, and the cost after mass production is expected to be close to perc. The new technology is expected to inject new vitality into the company in the next year.
Backed by the strong capital of “HUAFA + IDG”, it benefits from the strategic layout of “virtual integration”. In 2017, the company benefited from the initial investment of HUAFA group and IDG capital to break through the encirclement of perc battery. In 2022, taking advantage of the east wind of Zhuhai to build a 100 billion new energy industrial park, the company plans to land 26gw ABC new technology project in Zhuhai to match the supply chain with Gaojing new energy. The abundant capital of HUAFA group + IDG will incubate a new photovoltaic industry cluster for the Pearl River Delta. Under this mode, each company will only focus on the links they are best at, and each company will participate in shares with each other to realize “virtual integration” and share industry dividends Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) as the core of the industrial chain, the battery link is very important.
Profit forecast, valuation analysis and investment suggestions: we predict that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 35.67 billion yuan, 33.81 billion yuan and 46.76 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.35 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan and 4.37 billion yuan respectively. The loss will be reversed in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 106.9% and 55.8% respectively from 2023 to 2024, which is equivalent to a dynamic P / E ratio of 19.7 times in 2022. It is covered for the first time and given an investment rating of “Buy-A”.
Risk warning: ABC new technology is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; The company’s shipment volume is lower than expected; The share compensation of major shareholders was less than expected.
