\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 559 Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) )
Core view
The company released the annual report for 21 years and the first quarterly report for 22 years. The revenue in 21 years was 4.027 billion yuan (YoY + 11.9%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 389 million yuan (YoY + 24.5%), increasing steadily. 22q1’s revenue was 908 million yuan (YoY + 20.4%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 266 million yuan (YoY + 373.7%), of which other income increased due to the receipt of government demolition compensation; 22q1 deduction of non attributable net profit of 70 million yuan (YoY + 41.2%), with high growth rate of deduction of non-profit.
The volume and price of high-grade liquor rose simultaneously, the structure was optimized, and the contract liabilities were bright at the end of the first quarter. In the past 21 years, the revenue of high-end liquor reached 1.877 billion yuan (YoY + 15.6%), the volume and price increased by 11.5% and 3.7% respectively, the revenue accounted for 50.0% (YoY + 2.4%), and the product structure was further upgraded; The revenue of mid-range liquor was 980 million yuan (YoY + 4.2%), and the volume and price were – 3.4% and + 7.8% year-on-year respectively; The revenue of low-grade liquor was 895 million yuan (YoY + 5.6%), and the volume and price were – 4.3% and + 10.3% year-on-year respectively. In summary, the business income of Baijiu was 3.753 billion yuan (yoy+10.0%), and the volume and price were -2.7% and 13.0% year-on-year respectively. The growth was mainly driven by price increase. In terms of products, Hengshui Laobaigan, Bancheng Shaoguo, Confucius family, Wuling and wenwanggong series products have achieved growth. At the end of the 21st century, the number of dealers was 10400 (yoy-23.5%), and the company gradually optimized its marketing network. 22The balance of contractual liabilities at the end of Q1 was 2.080 billion yuan, an increase of 793 million yuan year-on-year, which is expected to support the growth of subsequent performance.
The gross profit margin is stable and upward, and the profitability continues to improve. The gross profit margin in 21 years is 67.3% (YoY + 2.6pct), which is expected to benefit mainly from the upgrading of structure and the increase of product price; The sales expense ratio is 30.7% (YoY + 2.3pct), which means that the company has increased the investment of promotion expenses; The rate of administrative expenses is 9.1% (YoY + 0.6pct); Overall, the net profit margin of sales in 21 years was 9.7% (YoY + 0.9pct), which was improved. 22q1 gross profit margin was 70.2% (YoY + 2.5pct), which increased significantly; The sales expense ratio was 36.7% (YoY + 4.2pct), mainly because the company increased advertising promotion expenses; Taxes and surcharges accounted for 13.5% (yoy-1.5pct). In summary, the non attributable net profit margin of 22q1 is deducted by 7.8% (YoY + 1.1pct), and the profitability is significantly improved.
It is proposed to launch an equity incentive plan to improve governance and look forward to the space for structural upgrading and performance growth. In 2001, Hengshui Laobaigan phase IV liquor making workshop project was put into operation, with an annual production capacity of about 20000 tons; Wuling liquor phase I expansion project is put into production to consolidate the foundation for future development. The company plans to launch an equity incentive plan, with 213 incentive objects including senior executives. The main assessment objective is to deduct non parent net profit from 22 to 23 years on the basis of 20 years, with an annualized growth rate of no less than 15%; Equity incentive is expected to enhance the company’s business vitality. The company plans to realize the main business income of 4.502 billion yuan in 22 years, which is expected to be realized smoothly. In the medium and long term, the company will shift its marketing focus to the sub high-end and high-end liquor represented by 1915, Gufa 20, class a 15 and Wuling liquor, optimize the product structure and improve the brand image, which is expected to accelerate the growth of performance in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Increase the revenue, gross profit margin, expense rate and other income. Due to the increase of expense rate, the profit forecast is lowered. It is predicted that the earnings per share of the company in 22-24 years will be 0.75 yuan, 0.76 yuan and 0.91 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 22-23 years is 0.77 yuan and 0.93 yuan). Combined with the valuation of comparable companies, the company is given a PE of 31 times in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 23.25 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tip: the competition in Hebei Province intensifies, the growth of Wuling sauce wine is less than expected, and the consumption upgrading is less than expected.
