\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 230 Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) )
Platform + track layout, downstream application scenarios, education, open platforms and consumers are the main growth drivers. Supported by the core technology of artificial intelligence, the company continues to promote the strategy of “platform + track”. In terms of “platform”, relying on iFLYTEK’s AI open platform, it provides AI capabilities and solutions for developers of Internet and intelligent hardware to build an industrial ecology; In terms of application “track”, we focus on smart education, smart medicine, smart city, consumer (Office), smart car, smart finance and other scenes. From 2018 to 2021, the company achieved revenue of RMB 7.917 billion, RMB 10.079 billion, RMB 13.025 billion and RMB 18.314 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 27%, 29% and 41% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 542 million yuan, 819 million yuan, 1364 million yuan and 1556 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25%, 51%, 66% and 14% respectively. From the perspective of growth power, the main driving force of the company’s revenue growth is education, open platforms and consumers. The revenue in the field of education increased from RMB 2.144 billion in 2018 to RMB 6.231 billion in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 42.71%. The revenue of open platform and consumer business increased from 1.707 billion yuan in 2018 to 4.688 billion yuan in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 40.05%. The business revenue of smart city (including smart politics, law and Information Engineering) increased from 2.732 billion in 2018 to 4.973 billion in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 22.10%.
Focus on AI2 0 strategy, entering the period of large-scale implementation of AI, the per capita efficiency is improved, and the net profit is expected to be realized. AI1. 0 the essence of strategy is exploration, AI2 The essence of strategy is promotion. The company started AI2 in 2019 0 strategy, focusing resources on 8 core product lines such as education, consumers, open platform, smart city and medical treatment, and officially entering the “ai2.0” stage, expanding the application scale, carrying out “algorithm + data” iteration, continuously landing products and entering the dividend cashing period of large-scale landing of AI technology. Company AI2 0 emphasizes improving quality and efficiency. With the improvement of the company’s per capita efficiency and the improvement of product standardization, reflected in the company’s operating results, the net profit is expected to be realized. From the perspective of industry development, algorithms + computing power + data continue to make breakthroughs, AI industrialization has entered the acceleration period, artificial intelligence technology is moving towards the mature stage of production, and some subdivision technology track industries have crossed the high-speed growth period and entered the steady climbing period.
Provide support for local business, go deep into downstream core links and establish long-term advantages. In 2021, the company’s “base business” accounted for more than 50% of its total revenue. The evaluation criteria of the business in the base area are the benign dependence of users, long-term operation ability, sustainable growth potential and industry demonstration value. The businesses in the base areas include education base areas (teaching students according to their aptitude, personalized learning manual, English listening and speaking test, learning machine B + C), consumer base areas (online marketing position, AI Marketing), medical base areas (general practitioner assistant, family doctor assistant, etc.), smart city base areas (Jianghuai big data general platform, Anhui Affairs Office, strategic cooperation city), etc. We believe that at present, the downstream of AI technical services needs deep cultivation in the industry. AI technical experts cooperate with industry experts and focus on industry application scenarios will be the priority strategy in the current market environment; Go deep into the core links of the industry, master the know-how of the industry, have customer stickiness, occupy high-quality data, and form a competitive barrier Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) over the years, the continuous layout of business in the base area has initially formed barriers.
The proportion of C-end products increased and the business model improved. The C-end intelligent hardware has gradually formed a perfect product matrix in the educational scene and office scene. The brand influence and user stickiness have been improved. In the field of education, the company has explored the business model of tog / B and TOC. Personalized learning manual is paid per semester according to the number of disciplines opened by each student. Tob promotion in the early stage and C-end payment in the later stage. The business model is actually btobtoc. The continuous improvement of the revenue scale and proportion of C-end products is of great significance to improve the company’s business model. First, the C-end data and business are connected with the g / b-end, which helps to accumulate high-quality data and application scenario experience required for AI model training and help the evolution of the whole product system. Second, verify the business model of AI, first build a banking base, and then realize it through products or services based on AI technology. At present, the company’s exploration in the education industry has begun to take effect, and its long-term strategy in the future is to continuously expand C-end products in medical, office and other fields. Third, C-end products are highly standardized and have marginal cost advantages, which is conducive to improving the profitability of the company. Fourth, the C-end products in the AI field have high user stickiness and can form a more stable business model. Compared with the traditional project system, the long-term operation is more stable.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 1.97/31.5/4.07 billion yuan respectively, EPS will be 0.85/1.35/1.75 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 44x / 27x / 21x respectively Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) is the leading manufacturer in the field of AI technology application in China. It cultivates the downstream by means of AI + education, AI + office, AI + medical treatment, AI + smart city and AI + automobile to provide product technology and solutions. Leading market share in education, office and other application scenarios. There is a lack of companies outside China whose business layout is completely consistent with that of Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) and we choose Shangtang, green Shentong, innovation Qizhi in the field of AI, and Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) as comparable companies. Considering that Shangtang, green Shentong and innovation Qizhi have not yet achieved profits, their PE will not be calculated temporarily. The average PE of the other three comparable companies in 22 years is 63 times Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) has strong leading attribute in AI application field and has high barriers. The company is given a “buy” rating with 60 times PE for 22 years and a corresponding reasonable value of 51 yuan / share.
Risk factors: the C-end layout is not as expected; Intensified market competition; The risk of slow market expansion outside the province; The risk of brain drain; Industry policy supervision risk;
