\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 643 Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) )
Event: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) released the first quarterly report of 2022. Q1 achieved revenue of 1.37 billion yuan (YoY + 74.3%, mom + 21.0%), net profit attributable to parent company of 230 million yuan (YoY + 76.7%, mom + 73.5%), and net profit not attributable to parent company of 230 million yuan (YoY + 79.5%, mom + 92.8%). Q1 achieved a new high in quarterly performance. After removing the impact of equity incentive expenses, the actual profit growth was higher.
Covid-19 detects the business contribution increment, but the traditional business contribution increment is the largest
According to the performance forecast of Wanrun in the first quarter, the covid-19 test kit of the subsidiary MP contributed to the revenue and profit increment. According to our annual performance review report, the profit increment of MP in 2021 was 742802 million yuan, mainly concentrated in Q3. The revenue of covid-19 test kit was high, but the net interest rate was low, only about 10%. According to the difference between the revenue growth and profit growth of Wanrun in the first quarter, And the gross profit margin of sales recovered from 32.8% in 2021q3 to 36.0%. We judge that the revenue and profit contributed by covid-19 test kit business are lower than that in the third quarter of last year, so the main profit increment contribution comes from non covid-19 business.
Panel materials: localization continues, AMOLED demand is under pressure, and LCD production rate is still high
According to the statistics of cinnorresearch, in 2022, about 152 million smart phone AMOLED panels were shipped worldwide in Q1, down 8.0% year-on-year and 28.4% month on month in the fourth quarter. However, the localization trend continues. In the first quarter, Chinese manufacturers accounted for 22.6% of the market share, an increase of 7% year-on-year, Samsung’s market share fell 6%, while BOE’s market share continued to increase to 11.2% and exceeded 10% for the first time. For LCD panels, the growth rate of Chinese panel manufacturers from January to march was 92.9% / 86.1% / 90.2% respectively. After the Spring Festival effect in February, it recovered to a higher level in March, and the demand is still strong.
Environmental protection materials: the national six standard was officially implemented, the proportion of national six heavy trucks increased, and the total fell
According to the statistics of the first commercial vehicle network, the sales volume of the national six heavy trucks in March this year was 44600, an increase of 97% year-on-year, setting a new record for the sales volume of the national six heavy trucks in a single month, while the average monthly sales volume of the national six heavy trucks in the second half of 2021 was 25500. Although the sales volume of heavy trucks has been weak since the second quarter of last year, with the formal and comprehensive implementation of the national six standard on January 1, 2022, the national six heavy trucks have increased significantly. For the environmental protection material zeolite, what is more important is the sales of national six heavy trucks. With the year-on-year increase, Wanrun is expected to contribute a higher growth of environmental protection materials in the first quarter.
Capital expenditure has entered an intensive period, and projects under construction provide increment
In 2021q4, the company also announced the Penglai project of 1.8 billion yuan to expand the production capacity of electronic information materials, special engineering materials and new energy materials. In the construction in progress, there are still B02 project with an investment of 310 million yuan, OLED display material project with an investment of 470 million yuan, C01 project with an investment of 480 million yuan and “photoresist resin series product project with an annual output of 65 tons”. The future capital expenditure is planned to exceed 3 billion yuan, The expansion projects are mainly new material projects, which provide medium and long-term growth power for the company.
Profit forecast: we maintain the company’s expected net profit of 790 / 1104 / 1392 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, maintain the target price of 25.5 yuan / share in 2022, and maintain the “buy” rating;
Risk warning: the construction progress of the project is lower than expected; Large fluctuations in exchange rates; The cost of raw materials is rising rapidly;
