\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 22 years. In Q1 of 22 years, the company realized a revenue of 8.115 billion yuan, yoy + 62.20%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.429 billion yuan, yoy + 54.13%, which was close to the upper limit of the notice and in line with expectations. At the same time, the company announced a number of new projects. First, invest 1.014 billion yuan to build equivalent capacity alternative construction 3 × 480t / h high efficiency and large capacity coal-fired boiler project. Second, invest 3.078 billion yuan to build nylon 66 high-end new material project, including two sets of nylon 66 units with a production scale of 40000 tons / year; A set of adipic acid plant with a production capacity of 200000 tons / year; A set of ethylenediamine plant with a production scale of 42000 T / A. Third, invest 1.031 billion yuan to build high-end solvent projects, including two sets of dimethyl carbonate units with a production scale of 300000 tons / year (one of which is the original industrial test unit of dimethyl carbonate); A set of methyl ethyl carbonate plant with a production scale of 300000 tons / year.
As a benchmark enterprise of coal chemical industry, the company has obvious advantages in cost and energy consumption. It constantly plans new projects, enters the field of new materials, escorts the long-term development of the company, is optimistic about the growth of the company and maintains the “buy” rating.
The volume and price of main products rose simultaneously, and the single quarter performance reached a new high: the growth of the company’s performance mainly benefited from the year-on-year increase in the price of main products. The prosperity of the company’s main products remained high. The average Q1 prices of urea / DMF / adipic acid / acetic acid / methanol / octanol / ethylene glycol in 22 years were 2684 / 16599 / 13590 / 5269 / 2643 / 12514 / 5168 yuan / ton, yoy respectively + 34% / + 63% / + 45% / + 1% / + 7% / – 3% / + 1%. At the same time, in 21 years, a series of technical transformation projects for increasing production and improving quality of dimethyl carbonate, caprolactam and supporting devices were completed and put into operation, and relevant products contributed profits to the company.
Raw materials dragged down the gross profit margin, and the effect of cost control was obvious: the gross profit margin of the company decreased by 1.23pct year-on-year to 39.04%, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials such as power coal, benzene and propylene, which dragged down the gross profit of the company. At present, due to the influence of the international situation, the price center of overseas natural gas and crude oil continues to rise, while China has strong ability to regulate coal prices, and the price of power coal is mainly stable. The company’s coal products are expected to maintain strong profitability by virtue of obvious cost advantages. In addition, the cost control effect of the company was obvious, and the three cost rates decreased by 0.28pct year-on-year to 1.26%.
The large-scale layout of the new material sector ensures the future performance growth: the company has strengthened its development in recent years and actively developed in the field of new materials. The following projects under construction are abundant, and the 200000 ton nylon 6 project is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 22 years; 120000 T / a PBAT degradable plastics, 179500 t BDO and 50000 t NMP projects are expected to be put into operation in 2023. The newly planned high-efficiency large capacity coal-fired boiler project is expected to be completed by the end of 23 years, the high-end solvent project is expected to be completed by Q1 in 24 years, and the nylon 66 project is expected to be completed by the middle of 24 years.
Profit forecast: considering the continued prosperity of the company’s main products, we revised the profit forecast. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit of 8.1/8.7 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023, yoy + 12% / + 7%, equivalent to EPS of 3.82/4.09 yuan. At present, the PE corresponding to the A-share price is 8 / 7 times. In view of the obvious cost advantage and stable profitability of the company, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tips: 1. The product price is lower than expected; 2. The production of new projects is not as expected
