be vigilant! The "double decline" in the profits of listed nonferrous metal industries in the third quarter continued

The annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022 are disclosed. On the whole, the revenue and net profit of listed companies show a trend of "steady increase", but the "differentiation" of industry performance is also an important feature.

Statistics show that:

1. Among the 31 first tier industries in Shenwan, the revenue of all industries achieved positive growth in 2021, with the fastest growth rate of steel revenue and the lowest comprehensive growth rate;

2. In terms of net profit, 27 industries achieved profits in 2021, while 4 industries including comprehensive, social services, commerce and retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery suffered losses;

3. The differentiation trend of industry performance intensified in the first quarter of this year;

4. In the first quarter of this year, the business of 21 industries achieved positive growth, 10 industries showed year-on-year decline, and the decline of real estate was the largest;

5. In the first quarter of this year, the number of industries with net profit losses fell to three, namely, comprehensive, social services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery; In addition, the net profit of 13 industries declined to varying degrees.

2021: the overall performance of listed companies "increased steadily"

Up to now, a total of 4792 A-share listed companies have disclosed the annual report of 2021. On the whole, in 2021, A-share listed companies achieved a total revenue of about 66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%, and a total net profit attributable to the parent company of about 5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%. The revenue and profit of Listed Companies in 2021 showed "steady growth".

From the perspective of industry, "differentiation" is an important feature of the operating performance of Listed Companies in 2021.

Statistics show that among Shenwan's 31 primary industries, the revenue of all industries achieved positive growth in 2021. The revenue of seven industries such as steel, transportation, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, basic chemical industry, petroleum and petrochemical and coal increased by more than 30% year-on-year. Most of these industries involve upstream raw materials. The revenue growth rate of the nine major industries dominated by comprehensive, beauty care, non bank finance, commercial retail, media and other service industries is less than 10%.

The differentiation of net profit is more obvious.

The annual net profit of five major industries, including transportation, media, petroleum and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals and basic chemical industry, increased by more than 100%. Among them, the growth rate of transportation is the largest, more than 8 times, mainly due to the significant pull of sub industry shipping ports; In addition, the growth rate of the media has more than doubled.

Taking Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) as an example, the company's overall operating performance, container shipping business revenue and freight volume reached a record high. In the whole year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 89.296 billion yuan, an increase of 79.369 billion yuan and 79.52% year-on-year.

Several families are happy and several families are sad. In 2021, the net profits of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and retail, social services and comprehensive industries suffered losses. Among them, the loss scale of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry exceeds 30 billion, and the loss scale of Commerce and retail exceeds 10 billion. In 2020, the two industries made profits of 73.461 billion yuan and 12.927 billion yuan respectively. The losses of social services and comprehensive industries were 6.799 billion yuan and 2.238 billion yuan respectively, both of which increased to varying degrees compared with the losses of 1.493 billion yuan and 1.358 billion yuan in 2020.

The leading enterprise in aquaculture - Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) is the enterprise with the largest loss in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating income of 47.670 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.04%, and a net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 18.819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 427.62%. The company pointed out that due to the shock and decline of China's pig market price, the rise of the company's sales volume and the decline of sales price have a great impact on the performance. In addition, the company has a single industry, and its operating revenue and profit contribution mainly come from pig breeding business. Therefore, compared with diversified business, the company is more severely affected by pig cycle.

In addition, the net profits of six major industries, including real estate, public utilities, communications, computers, architectural decoration and light industry manufacturing, fell to varying degrees. The decline of real estate was the largest, reaching 84.50%; Public utilities took the second place, with a decrease of 61.43%.

first quarter of this year:

"differentiation" intensified, and the revenue and profit of top 10 industries decreased

Entering 2022, the international macroeconomic situation is more complex, and the operation of listed companies is also challenged and tested.

Yi Huiman, chairman of the CSRC, said at the third member congress of the association of listed companies a few days ago: "At present, the external environment for the development of listed companies is undergoing complex and profound changes. Under the impact of the epidemic in the 21st century, the evolution of the situation in the past century has accelerated, economic globalization has encountered a countercurrent, the vulnerability of global industrial chain supply chain has increased, the world economic recovery has slowed down, inflation is high, and instability and uncertain factors have increased significantly. China's economic development is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations, and the development of listed companies is facing costs and capital The source, environment and other hard constraints continue to strengthen, the foundation for sustainable profit recovery is still not solid, and it is increasingly difficult to find the optimal solution under multiple constraints. "

The intensification of "differentiation" in the business performance of various industries in the first quarter of this year just echoes the above judgment.

Specifically, in the first quarter of this year, the revenue of 10 industries including real estate, commercial retail and non bank finance fell year-on-year, while there were no industries with declining revenue in the first quarter of last year and the whole year.

In terms of the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company, the three industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, social services and comprehensive continued to lose money in 2021 in the first quarter of this year, while commercial retail reversed the loss trend in 2021 and achieved a profit of 9.471 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year.

In addition to the above loss making industries, the net profits of 14 industries declined to varying degrees. Combined with the revenue, the revenue and net profit of 10 industries such as real estate, commercial retail and non bank finance "decreased" in the first quarter of this year.

Among the industries with declining net profit, the three major industries such as computer, real estate and light industry manufacturing decreased by more than 40%.

In terms of computers, the net profit of computer equipment and it services in the two sub industries declined in the first quarter of this year, and the net profit of software development in the sub industries suffered a loss.

Real estate continued the downturn in 2021. In the first quarter of this year, the scale of national commercial housing sales and new construction fell. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter, the national commercial housing sales area was 310 million square meters, and the sales amount was 2.97 trillion yuan, down 13.8% and 22.7% respectively year-on-year; Investment in real estate development increased by 0.7%, a decrease of 24.9 percentage points over the same period in 2021; The new construction area of houses decreased by 17.5% year-on-year. Land market transactions continued to decline. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, in the first quarter, the planned construction area of residential land supply and transaction planning construction area in 300 cities in China decreased by 43.5% and 58.6% respectively year-on-year. The average premium rate of residential land transaction was 4.4%, down 13.3 percentage points from the same period last year.

Nonferrous metals, coal, power equipment, transportation and other industries continued their strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of more than 40% in net profit in the first quarter of this year.

In terms of non-ferrous metal industry, benefiting from the expected warming of China's steady growth, metal prices continued to operate at a high level. Taking Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) as an example, the company achieved an operating revenue of 64.771 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, with a year-on-year increase of 36%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.124 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 144%. The unit price of several main industries of the company increased in the first quarter of this year compared with last year.

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) in the annual report, it is pointed out that since the outbreak of the epidemic, the prices of non-ferrous metal products have generally risen, mainly due to: first, the monetary policy of the global central bank represented by the Federal Reserve has been greatly relaxed; second, the mismatch of economic recovery between resource suppliers and resource demanders has triggered the mismatch of resource supply and demand; third, the emerging energy crisis Geopolitical warfare and resource nationalism have increased the rate of supply disruption. Although on the surface, these factors will gradually slow down as the epidemic subsides, medium and long-term structural changes in the global economy are emerging. The energy revolution is the central theme of this long-term change and will have a profound impact on non-ferrous metal mining.

Looking forward to 2022, the company said that the current foundation for the overall recovery of the world economy is not solid, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has brought certain pressure to the company's Central Asia project, the bottleneck of the supply chain has exacerbated inflationary pressure, and the global epidemic continues to mutate and spread. The supply and demand pattern of mineral resources has been reshaped. The supply of strategic key minerals is receiving high attention from major countries and may become the object of geopolitical game, increasing the uncertainty of related mineral resources development.

- Advertisment -