Key investment points
How to view the investment opportunities of lidar industry? US stock lidar manufacturers have been listed since 2020, which is an important leader in industry research. This paper selects five companies listed earlier as a reference. Velodyne is mainly mechanical, luminar, AEVA and innoviz adopt the mixed solid-state route, while ouster focuses on pure solid-state. In terms of finance, the profit and cash flow of each company have not been regularized, the revenue is initially differentiated, and the market value varies greatly. Luminar, with the largest market value, had a revenue of 32 million US dollars in 2021 and a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 238 million US dollars. We believe that the technical route, product positioning, fixed-point progress, financial data and corresponding performance in the capital market of US stock lidar manufacturers are important references.
Metaphor 1: there is a long-term expectation of stars and seas on the demand side. In the short-term, it is important to look at China's growth in the past 22 years. As the core sensor of intelligent driving, lidar essentially provides safety redundancy and rigid demand. Lidar can make up for the defects of camera and millimeter wave radar in response speed, use scene and detail processing. Multi-sensor fusion is the future trend. 2022 is the first year for China's lidar. Key models such as Weilai et7, ideal L9 and Xiaopeng G9 are available. We predict that the sales volume of models equipped with lidar in 2022 is expected to reach 200000. Despite the small scale of China's passenger car lidar market in 22 years (we expect us $260 million), under the smooth verification, it will usher in rapid growth in 23 years.
Metaphor 2: the technical route on the supply side is uncertain, and the fixed point of passenger cars is the core. The overall development direction of the industry is to reduce mechanical parts, improve luminous efficiency, improve computing power and reduce costs. Pure solid-state scanning scheme is the future technical trend. The capital market valued the long-term route. Luminar's MEMS + 1550nm route was sought after by the market, while velodyne's mechanical products were relatively not optimistic. Obtaining fixed points for passenger cars is the core of growth. Based on the business history of leading enterprises, we believe that team, technology, cost reduction and timing are important success factors.
Metaphor 3: the upstream of the industrial chain has strong certainty, and China's supply chain has global advantages. At present, the industry is in the semi-solid and solid exploration period, and there is great uncertainty in the whole machine factory betting on a single technology, while upstream parts manufacturers, such as optical, laser, chip and other suppliers, are expected to obtain stronger performance certainty. Compared with overseas manufacturers, the threshold of China's vehicle regulation level certification standard is relatively lower. The radical development ideas of new forces and other manufacturers determine that China's supply chain is expected to take the lead in enjoying the on-board bonus.
Metaphor 4: the industry valuation is temporarily anchored to luminar, and the theme investment stage enjoys "parts agitation". In the history of luminar, the leader of double trading, its PS multiple was 36 times in the initial stage of listing. At the peak of market value, PS exceeded 800 times, and now it still exceeds 150 times. The whole industry is valued based on the revenue of 2025, and the short-term safety margin is low. We believe that the long-term market potential of lidar is great. At present, similar to Tesla in 2011, it is expected to digest the valuation with a long-term growth. As the first beneficiary target of the upstream, the parts company has certain performance support, and the "restless market" will appear repeatedly under the catalysis of the positive industry.
Investment suggestion: be optimistic about the upstream supply chain opportunities brought by domestic lidar taking the lead in getting on the bus, and be optimistic about the undervalued varieties with traditional main business support and flexibility provided by lidar. Recommend Shunyu optical technology / Juguang technology, and pay attention to Changguang Huaxin / Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) ; Overseas complete machine manufacturers are suggested to pay attention to luminar / ouster, etc.
Risk warning: the progress of vehicle regulation verification is less than expected, the risk of epidemic disturbance, and the risk of technical route innovation
