\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 518 Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022.
With sufficient orders and increased production capacity, Q1 revenue achieved rapid growth
In 2022q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 371 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 62.78%. Under the adverse impact of the Shenzhen epidemic, the revenue side of Q1 still increased significantly year-on-year, basically in line with market expectations. We believe that it is mainly due to the high prosperity of the new energy industry in 2021, benefiting from the continuous expansion of power battery enterprises and the expansion of consumer electronics and other industries. In 2021, the company signed new orders of 3.599 billion yuan (including tax), with a year-on-year increase of 138.66%; At the same time, the company actively expanded its production capacity and accelerated the confirmation of relevant orders in 2022q1, driving the rapid improvement of the revenue side. Q1 is the company’s traditional off-season. Under the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, the revenue accounts for a relatively low proportion. Considering the company’s sufficient orders on hand and a significant increase in production capacity, we judge that the subsequent revenue is expected to accelerate growth. We judge that the growth rate of new orders signed by the company in 2022q1 is more than 30%, and the prosperity of the new energy industry will continue in 2022. We expect that the growth rate of new orders signed by the company in 2022 is expected to exceed 50%, which will support the growth of future performance.
The short-term profitability has decreased slightly and is optimistic about the improvement of profitability in 2022
In 2022q1, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 14.92 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.86%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.95 million yuan after non deduction, a year-on-year increase of 69.95%, which is basically in line with our expectations. In 2022q1, the company’s net profit margin on sales was 4.03%, with a year-on-year decrease of -1.57pct, and the profitability decreased slightly. ① On the gross profit side, the gross profit margin of 2022q1 company’s sales was 38.44%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.57pct, and the gross profit margin increased steadily. We speculate that it is mainly due to the effectiveness of cost control brought by the company’s promotion of standardized construction in design, procurement and other links, as well as a certain increase in the proportion of revenue of high gross profit margin consumer electronics industry; ② On the expense side, during 2022q1, the expense rate of the company was 35.83%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.66pct, of which the sales, management (including R & D) and financial expense rates were 5.79%, 29.88% and 0.16% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of -2.01pct, + 2.02pct and + 0.65pct respectively. The decrease in the sales expense rate was mainly due to the scale effect, the expansion rate of salespeople was lower than the growth rate of revenue, and the increase in the management expense rate was mainly due to the higher growth rate of relevant personnel. In 2022q1, the proportion of income is relatively low, the expense rate is high, and the level of net interest rate is not guiding for the whole year. Considering the decrease of expense rate during the period caused by the advance of expenses and the increase of per capita output value, we judge that the profitability of the company is expected to increase significantly in 2022.
The company has benefited from the expansion of power battery production for a long time, horizontal expansion has opened up growth space, benefited from the wave of power battery production expansion, and the relevant business income of the company will enter a period of rapid growth. In addition, the company continues to expand into the fields of automobile, consumer electronics and other fields to further open the growth space of the company: ① we predict that the global power battery laser welding equipment market will reach 25.7 billion yuan in 2025. The company deeply binds Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and actively develops second and third tier customers, which will fully benefit from the large-scale expansion of production downstream; ② The development trend of automobile towards light weight and intelligence appears, and the advantages of laser welding technology will become increasingly prominent. Relying on the technology and customer resources accumulated in the field of power battery, the company has a certain first mover advantage; ③ Laser processing is in the golden rising period in the consumer electronics industry. The company is actively carrying out R & D layout, and there is a large growth space in the follow-up.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the order demand brought by the continuous expansion of production in the power battery industry, we maintain the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 327 million yuan, 614 million yuan and 890 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 21, 11 and 8 times respectively. As the leader of laser welding equipment in China, the company will fully benefit from the expansion of power battery production and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the expansion of power battery production is less than expected, the increase of net interest rate is less than expected, and the delivery of orders is less than expected
