\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 68 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) )
Event: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 20.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.96%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.956 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.47%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 32.44 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. 22q1 revenue was 6.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.876 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.72%.
Key investment points
2021 is better than the performance forecast, and Guojiao brand leads. In 2021, the company’s operating revenue was + 23.96% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 32.47% year-on-year, which was better than the previous performance forecast, and a successful conclusion was achieved in 2021. The liquor revenue was 20.416 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.12%. Among them, the proportion of medium and high-end products continued to increase. In 2021, the sales revenue of medium and high-end liquor was 18.397 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.22%, accounting for 90% of the total revenue, and an increase of 4.6pct year-on-year at the beginning of the year. We expect that the growth rate of Guojiao will maintain 25-30% throughout the year, Tequ will speed up in the second half of the year, and the. By the end of the year, the company had contractual liabilities of 3.510 billion yuan, an increase of 1.831 billion yuan year-on-year; There are 1783 dealers in China, with a single dealer contributing 11.45 million yuan. The quantity is optimized and the quality is further improved.
With the improvement of cost-effectiveness ratio, the profitability continued to grow. In 2021, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 85.86%, year-on-year + 2.34pct, the sales expense rate was 17.44%, year-on-year -1.12pct, and the cost investment focused on advertising and channel promotion. The management expense rate (excluding R & D) was 5.78%, year-on-year + 0.20pct, the overall rate remained controllable, and the net sales interest rate was 38.45%, year-on-year + 2.67%.
Improve quality and efficiency, and the performance of 22q1 exceeded market expectations. 22q1’s revenue was + 26.15% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 32.72% year-on-year. The performance exceeded the market expectation. We expect the year-on-year growth rate of Guojiao to be 20%, the low growth rate to be bright, and the recoverability of medium-grade liquor Tequ to continue to grow rapidly; The company’s sales revenue was 7.498 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.30%. By the end of 22q1, the company had contract liabilities of 1.763 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.2%. Benefiting from the further improvement of product structure, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 86.43%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.39pct, the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio was 10.66% / 4.84% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -2.82pct / + 0.61pct, which mainly increased the cost of equity incentive, with a tax rate of 10.42%, a year-on-year increase of -2.54pct, and the net sales profit margin increased by 2.24pct to 45.81%.
Focus on “double brands, three lines and large single products”, enter the East and South map, and have clear development ideas. Guojiao maintained rapid growth. During the revival of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) brand, 1952 and heigai and other new products successively stood in the East and South map, continued to layout the national market and base market, continued to promote various consumer centered cultivation and marketing activities and enhance the brand influence. In terms of internal mechanism, executive compensation and equity incentive have been implemented one after another, fully condensing the hearts of the team.
Profit forecast and investment rating: at present, the company maintains the EPS of 6.70/8.33/10.09 yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the current market value corresponds to 32 / 26 / 21 times of PE from 2022 to 2024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: epidemic control exceeded expectations and consumption recovery was less than expected
