\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Event overview
Results released by the company: ① in 2021, the revenue was 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 890 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 82%. In the split quarter, the revenue of 2021q4 was 780 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.8%. ② The revenue of 2022q1 was 1.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 86%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 94%.
Analysis and judgment:
20212022q1 performance meets expectations
Previously, it was predicted that the revenue in 2021 would be about 3.4 billion yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company would be 880950 million yuan. The actual performance in 2021 fell within the forecast range. Previously, it was predicted that the revenue from January to February 2022 was about 1.4 billion yuan, about + 120% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 470 million yuan, about + 130% year-on-year. Combined with the performance of 2022q1, the revenue in March was about 290 million yuan, about + 6% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent was about 60 million yuan, about – 15% year-on-year. March is the off-season. Considering the epidemic situation, it is in line with our expectations.
Order & delivery rhythm prediction premise
The contract liabilities at the end of 2021 were 1.38 billion yuan (720 million yuan in the same period last year), and the contract liabilities at the end of 2022q1 were 680 million yuan (580 million yuan in the same period last year). The contract liabilities in Q1 maintained an increase year-on-year, but the range was slightly weaker. We believe that it is related to the premise of payment, delivery rhythm and epidemic situation in 2022.
Sub products: internal reference and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series double high increase
The internal reference series has maintained rapid growth. In terms of products, in 2021, internal ginseng achieved a revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 81%, split sales of + 77% and average price of + 2.3%. The ex factory price of products remained stable and the average price was slightly driven by high-end non-standard products. According to the third-party monitoring data, the internal reference rating fluctuated in 2021, adjusted to 810 yuan / bottle from 840 yuan / bottle at the beginning of the year to the end of the year, and the rating has been stable at 810 yuan / bottle since 2022. On the whole, as Baijiu with a price of 1000 yuan, the main development strategy is to stabilize the price and increase the volume. In terms of volume, 996 tons will be sold in 2021, corresponding to about 1.99 million bottles, and the consumer population covered is still relatively limited. In 2022q1, it is expected that the internal participation revenue will still maintain a rapid growth close to the overall growth rate of the company. Since March, the epidemic situation has been repeated throughout the country, but considering that it is in the off-season of Baijiu consumption, it is expected to have a limited impact on the sales of internal ginseng Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series high increase. The revenue in 2021 was 1.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 89%, and the CAGR in 20192021 was + 38%. In 2021, the split volume was + 74% year-on-year and the average price was + 8.5% year-on-year. According to the third-party monitoring data, the wholesale prices and terminal prices of hongtan and Huangtan in 2021 are higher than before. The improvement of channel profits has promoted the enthusiasm of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) Series in attracting investment and dealers in making payments, thus promoting the rapid growth of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series’ revenue in 2021. In 2022q1, it is estimated that Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series has achieved a rapid growth close to the overall growth rate of the company. We judge that due to the influence of the early rhythm of payment and delivery, it will maintain a rapid growth throughout the year and the growth rate will be lower than that of last year.
The company’s sales channels expanded rapidly
In 2021, the coverage of prefecture level cities in China will increase from 62% at the beginning of the year to 67%, and the coverage of county-level markets in Hunan Province will increase from 73.6% at the beginning of the year to 94%. 1256 contracted customers, up + 60% year-on-year. 19752 terminal outlets, a year-on-year increase of + 137%; 590 stores, up + 134% year-on-year. We expect that the core terminals and stores will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2022 to expand the influence of the company’s brand culture.
Steady improvement of profitability
In terms of profitability, in 2021, the company’s net interest rate after deducting non return to parent company reached 25.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.8pct. Among them, the gross profit margin is + 1.1pct year-on-year, the sales expense rate is + 2pcts year-on-year, and the management expense rate is – 2.6pcts year-on-year. In terms of gross profit margin, the internal reference and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) series remained stable, and the gross profit margin of Xiangquan & other series increased significantly. The decrease of management expense rate is reflected in the improvement of management efficiency (employee salary is increasing and other expenses are decreasing), and the saved expenses are more invested in sales expenses. In the sales expenses in 2021, the publicity and market service fees are + 127% year-on-year. We think it is a necessary investment to promote the company’s brand strength and influence. The non net profit margin deducted in 2022q1 was + 1.4pct year-on-year, maintaining a steady increase. The internal reference of the annual outlook maintained a higher than average growth, and the product structure will drive the steady improvement of the company’s overall profitability.
Investment advice
The performance of 20212022q1 is in line with expectations due to the full forecast previously. Looking ahead to Q2, we believe that the epidemic has an impact on the pace of mobile sales and market development, but the current epidemic is mainly in the off-season, so there is no need to be too pessimistic. Judging from the continuous improvement of the company’s brand strength, the steady expansion of team building and sales channels, and the stability of internal reference rating, the fundamentals of the company are still relatively healthy. Maintain the revenue forecast of 4.8/6.3 billion yuan and net profit forecast of 1.42/1.88 billion yuan in 202223, increase the revenue forecast of 7.9 billion yuan and net profit forecast of 2.39 billion yuan in 2024. From 2022 to 24, EPS was 4.36/5.8/7.34 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 149.81 yuan on 2022 / 4 / 29, and P / E was 34 / 26 / 20 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The risk of repeated epidemic expansion across the country, sluggish demand for Baijiu and food safety problems
