\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 688 Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) )
Event: the company’s q122 revenue was 7.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 17.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 33.1%. The weighted average roe was 1.41%, year-on-year -1.13pct. Proportion of revenue: brokerage 24.6%, investment bank 12.6%, asset management 13.5%, interest 11.1%, investment 25.4%, other 12.8%. Revenue growth: brokerage – 0.4%, investment bank – 2.8%, asset management + 39.7%, interest – 14.7%, investment – 48.3%, other + 7.5%.
Performance attribution: [the brokerage business is stable and the two financial institutions are under slight pressure] the brokerage business of q122 company is better than that of most peers, and the brokerage business market accounts for or still ranks first in the industry. At the end of the period, the financing fund was 107923 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 3.9%, driving the decline of interest income. Considering that the average daily balance of two financing of A-Shares was + 5.9% year-on-year, we judge that the two financing markets accounted for or decreased slightly. [good performance in asset management] as of April 30, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) asset management was 61.718 billion yuan, ranking fourth in the industry; China Southern Fund (holding 41.16%) has a non monetary fund management scale of 523419 billion yuan, ranking the sixth in the industry, and Huatai Bairui Fund (holding 49%) has a non monetary fund management scale of 162091 billion yuan, ranking the 26th in the industry. In addition, the company also manages private equity funds through Huatai Zijin investment. [sharp decline in investment] according to the company’s 2021 annual report, the company’s trading financial asset structure: bonds 45.1%, stocks 32.7%, public funds 13.9%, others 8.3%. The company’s investment income is under pressure under the sharp fluctuation of q122 capital market. [expense side] q122 management expense ratio was 58.0%, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.1pct, which was the main reason why the decline of the company’s profit was greater than that of its revenue.
The wealth management business has room for in-depth development and the strength of investment banks is leading: the company has a high brokerage market share and a good customer base. Superimposing its asset management and public offering licenses can provide customers with high-quality assets, and the road of wealth management transformation is relatively smooth. Q122 company’s main underwriting income of equity is 417 million yuan, ranking sixth in the industry, the total underwriting amount of bonds is 19.052 billion yuan, ranking fourth in the industry, and the underwriting amount of corporate bonds + corporate bonds is 38.645 billion yuan, ranking fifth in the industry.
Investment suggestion: Based on the data of the first quarter report, we lowered the assumption of return on investment and lowered the company’s profit forecast for 202224 by 10.0%, 9.1% and 6.9% respectively. The 2022e P / b of the company is 0.75x, which is not only at its absolute low in recent five years, but also lower than comparable companies such as CITIC (1.18x) and Guojun (0.89x), maintaining “Buy-A”.
Risk tips: capital market volatility intensifies, wealth management transformation is less than expected, competition intensifies, etc
