\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 76 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) )
Key investment points
Event: the company’s q122 revenue was 4.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year – 42.6%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year – 48.7%, and the weighted average roe was 1.22%, a year-on-year – 1.34pct. Proportion of income: brokerage 34.6%, investment banking 3.1%, asset management 49.0%, interest 20.7%, investment – 23.8%, others 16.2%. Revenue growth: brokerage – 9.8%, investment banking + 27.0%, asset management – 1.3%, interest – 15.5%, investment – 166.9%, others – 59.1%.
Performance attribution: [gradual recovery of investment banking business] equity underwriting of q122 company: 2 IPOs with an underwriting amount of 1.127 billion yuan and 2 refinancing underwriting with an underwriting amount of 962 million yuan. In the same period last year, the company registered zero for equity underwriting due to punishment. As of April 30, the company had the largest IPO reserves in the industry. Bond underwriting: the total underwriting amount is 44.079 billion yuan, accounting for 1.76% of the market, ranking 16th, and the underwriting amount of corporate bonds + corporate bonds is 14.668 billion yuan, accounting for 1.74% of the market, ranking 17th. Investment banking is one of the company’s traditional advantageous businesses. In the past, the income of investment banking accounted for about 10% – 15% in normal operating years. Its return to the growth track may lead to the improvement of the company’s overall performance. [big asset management business remains in the leading position] as of April 30, the net asset value of Guangfa asset management collective asset management was 101630 billion yuan, ranking the second in the industry, and the management scale of e fund and Guangfa fund non monetary funds was 108 trillion yuan and 627916 billion yuan, ranking the first and third in the industry. Affected by market fluctuations, the company’s asset management business is slightly under pressure, but the overall performance is better than that of most peers. [significant decline in investment income] according to the company’s 2021 annual report, the company’s trading financial asset structure: 40.5% of public funds, 28.4% of bonds, 17.0% of stocks and 14.1% of others. The company’s investment income is greatly affected by the fluctuation of capital market.
The development of OTC business, wealth management and institutional brokerage business deserves attention: the company is one of the eight primary dealers of OTC options. The annual report of 2021 disclosed that the proportion of OTC equity derivative financial assets in all derivative financial assets was 83.2%, and q122 derivative financial assets were 1.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 261.1%. Q421 sells non monetary funds on a commission basis, ranking third in the industry. In 2021, the company’s Trading Commission revenue ranked third in the industry.
Investment suggestion: Based on the assumption of reducing the return on investment of the company based on the data of the first quarter report, we will reduce the profit forecast for 202224 by 11.6%, 7.6% and 7.4% respectively. Company 2022e P / B1 08x, maintain the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tips: capital market fluctuations, investment banking business growth less than expected, fund redemption more than expected, etc
