\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 605 Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co.Ltd(002605) )
Key investment points
Event: the company achieved a revenue of 3.81 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 48.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 570 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of - 47.5%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 510 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of - 10.9%. In 2022, Q1 realized an income of 10.1 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 90 million, a year-on-year increase of - 53.8%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was RMB 80 million, a year-on-year decrease of - 54.5%.
The leisure game business is stable and the market position is stable. In 2021, the company's game business realized a revenue of 1.222 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.73%; The gross profit margin reached 97.55% year-on-year + 0.35pct. The company's existing leisure games still maintain the leading position in the industry, "fishing explodes the sky" ranks the top 5 in the leisure field of IOS best seller list, and "fingertip fishing" ranks the top 20 in the leisure field of IOS best seller list, with strong player stickiness; According to Qimai data, 3D fishing, which was upgraded and launched at the end of 2021, remained in the top 20 of the best-selling casual games on iPhone. The company's overseas business also has strong competitive strength. Game products have been released to more than 100 countries and regions around the world, with a total of more than 32 million registered users, and have been recommended by Google play for many times. With the release of Chinese version numbers and the gradual enhancement of the company's R & D strength, the game business is still expected to maintain steady growth.
The advertising business gives a brilliant answer and expects to further improve the market share. In 2021, the company's advertising business achieved a revenue of 1.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 231.71%, and its proportion in the revenue increased from 18.65% in 2020 to 41.63% in 2021. The company's business transformation is progressing smoothly. In 2021, the company continues to tap the potential of online economy. Improve the overall professional level of business personnel by improving the organizational structure of innovative marketing team; Make use of the rich and diverse shooting scenes built by the company to further enhance the industrial value of the whole chain of Internet marketing and provide customers with more professional and high-quality marketing services. In the first half of 2022, the overall market of advertising business may be affected by the epidemic, but we are optimistic that the market share will further increase under the optimization of the company's organizational structure and the improvement of marketing efficiency.
The rising rate of 2022q1 is that Xinyou is in the promotion period, which has a limited impact on the whole year. The company's 2022q1 sales rate increased by 5.76pct to 19.17% year-on-year, mainly due to the company's increased investment in combination with the market situation. We expect that this part of the promotion cost will be gradually recovered in q2-q4 in 2022. The R & D rate in 2022q1 increased by 1.43pct to 5.66% year-on-year, mainly due to the company's strengthening R & D investment, constantly updating iterative and upgraded versions and R & D of Xinyou.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we believe that with the adjustment of raw material costs, the return of Xinyou and the long-term growth of innovative marketing business, the company's performance is expected to grow steadily. However, considering the impact of the short-term epidemic, we will reduce the company's EPS from 1.73/2.08 yuan to 1.66/1.96 yuan in 20222023, and it is expected that the EPS in 2024 will be 2.21 yuan and the corresponding PE will be 9 / 7 / 7 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: policy supervision risk, goodwill impairment risk, new business development is less than expected
