\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 222 Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 6.69%, in line with our expectations. According to the company’s annual report in 2021 and the first quarterly report in 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 5.297 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of – 8.66%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 6.69%, slightly lower than the market expectation. Among them, 2021q4 achieved a revenue of 1.172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 15.10% and a month on month increase of – 17.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 85 million yuan, up + 37.14% year-on-year and – 71.83% month on month. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 984 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.93% and a month on month increase of – 16.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 179 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.68% and a month on month increase of + 110.57%, basically in line with our expectations.
The Chinese market has developed steadily and overseas business has continued to layout. In 2021, the company realized a sales revenue of 2.089 billion yuan in the smart sector, a year-on-year increase of – 19.03%. In the Chinese market, in 2021, the company ranked first in the number and amount of bid winning in the State Grid, South Grid and local power grid, with a total bid winning of about 657 million yuan in the State Grid and about 273 million yuan in the South grid, with a total bid winning amount of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 33.81%. The follow-up projects have been implemented with strong growth stability. In terms of overseas markets, the company’s overseas sales accounted for about 35% in 2021 and will continue to increase in 2022. At present, the overseas orders on hand exceed 700 million yuan, which will be delivered successively in 2022, and the overseas market continues to have a large volume.
Accelerate the reserve of photovoltaic projects and deepen the EPC business of central state-owned enterprises. In 2021, the company’s new energy sector achieved a sales revenue of 3.037 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.39% over the same period. Among them, the EPC business revenue reached 1.48 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 16.28%. By the end of 2021, the company has connected and operated about 1.6 GW of various photovoltaic power stations, more than 3.5gW of operation and maintenance power stations, and more than 6Gw of reserved photovoltaic projects (Qidong 2gw +, Anhui 2gw and Jingmen 3gw). In 2022, the company plans to start 2.5gw new energy projects. The operation and maintenance benefits of the power station are gradually improved, and the performance increment can be expected.
The new business of energy storage is ready to go, and all kinds of reserve projects exceed 3gwh. The company focuses on promoting the improvement of the upstream and downstream industrial chain layout of energy storage. In 2022, the company will work with Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) to complete the construction of a special battery factory for lithium iron phosphate energy storage with an annual output of 10gwh, and build an energy storage battery pack with an annual capacity of more than 2gwh and a system integration production and testing base in Qidong. At present, the company’s reserve project resources exceed 3gwh. We expect that the energy storage capacity delivered and sold by the end of 2022 will not be less than 600mwh. We plan to redevelop the reserve 5gwh energy storage project in the next three years, or it will become a new performance growth point.
Profit forecast and investment rating: due to the rapid rise of overseas freight and significant changes in exchange rate, as well as the rise in the price of photovoltaic raw materials, we downgraded the company’s performance. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 1.21/14.8/1.74 billion in 2022 / 23 / 24 (the previous value was RMB 1.634/2.010 billion in 2022 / 23), an increase of 30% / 22% / 17% at the same time. We gave the company 14 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 8.26 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: competition intensifies and the supply of raw materials is uncertain
