\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 136 Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) )
Key investment points
The performance of 2021 was in line with our expectations, and the repeated epidemic at the end of the year put pressure on the performance of 2022q1.
2021: the revenue is 419 million yuan (YoY + 11.86%), the net profit attributable to the parent company is 51.5 million yuan (yoy-6.17%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 42.78 million yuan (YoY + 51.66%). The performance meets our expectations. 2021q4 single quarter: the operating performance decreased year-on-year, with a revenue of 100 million yuan (yoy-32.87%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.59 million yuan (yoy-72%). 2022q1: due to the continuous and repeated epidemic, the performance is under significant pressure. The single quarter revenue is 56.13 million yuan (yoy-28.05%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is - 21.49 million yuan.
In 2021, the operation of new projects brought incremental performance, the scenic spot continued to recover and the hotel grew rapidly.
In 2021, the company's scenic spot business revenue was 225 million yuan (YoY + 11.34%), with a gross profit margin of 61.45% (YoY + 4.26pct). Through the improvement and optimization of the vacation product chain, the revenue of each scenic spot increased positively and the profitability was enhanced. Among them, the revenue of Shanshui park scenic spot was + 14.44%, the gross profit margin was + 6.03pct, the revenue of Nanshan Bamboo Sea Scenic Spot was + 7.75% and the net profit was 26.09 million yuan. The cableway subsidiary has a revenue of 18.16 million yuan and a net profit of 7.56 million yuan. The revenue of hot spring business is 35.59 million yuan (yoy-5.16%), and the gross profit margin is 43.5% (YoY + 3.72 PCT); The revenue of hotel business was 124 million yuan (YoY + 33.7%), mainly due to the performance increment brought by the operation of Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) Hotel, with a gross profit margin of 35.72% (yoy-15.4pct).
The cost structure is stable in 2021, and the year-on-year increase in 2022q1 management rate is due to the impact of accounting standards. The gross profit margin of 2021 is 50% (yoy-2.6pct), the sales expense ratio is 12.9% (yoy-2.9pct), and the management expense ratio is 18.3% (yoy-0.9pct). 2021q4 gross profit margin is 49.7% (yoy-8pct), sales expense rate is 17.7% (YoY + 0.8pct), and management expense rate is 23.9% (+ 8pct). In 2022q1, the gross profit margin is 1.1% (mainly due to the impact of revenue decline), the sales expense rate is 10.9% (yoy-2.5pct), and the management expense rate is 33.2% (YoY + 12.1pct). The change of cost structure is mainly related to the adjustment of standards.
Introduce state-owned assets and investment, deeply cultivate the Yangtze River Delta and focus on urban agglomeration. 1) Meng Guangcai, the controlling shareholder, has successively transferred a total of 20.3% equity to Liyang Chengfa. After the introduction of state-owned assets, the company's equity structure is optimized, which is expected to complement each other in the region. 2) Promote the construction of Nanshan Xiaozhai phase II project, tap the long tail market such as customized tourism, and expand the market share; 3) The company and Jiangsu Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) holding group (Liyang state owned assets holding) jointly invested 100 million yuan to build Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) animal kingdom, enrich destination tourism products and continuously consolidate base construction. 4) The company is expected to expand nationwide through mergers and acquisitions / investment in new construction, and is expected to thicken the company's performance and improve its anti risk ability in the medium and long term.
Profit forecast and investment rating: repeated outbreaks in many places since 2022 and subsequent control policies that are easy to tighten but difficult to loosen may put pressure on the profit side. Based on conservative assumptions, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202223 to RMB 0.4/120 million (the previous value was RMB 137 / 170 million). It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be RMB 140 million, and the CAGR of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be 87.3%. The current stock price corresponds to 106 / 35 / 30 times of the dynamic PE, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk warning: repeated outbreaks, recovery & the project progress is not as expected by the market, and extreme weather risks.
