\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 405 Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) )
Event overview
On April 29, 2022, the company disclosed the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 622 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 117862 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year.
Analysis and judgment:
The performance is bright, and the inflection point confirms that the high growth of “Zhiyun” business may indicate that the company has preliminarily completed the role transformation
The annual revenue achieved a high growth of more than 40%, and the performance turned losses into profits, indicating that the inflection point of the company has arrived and officially entered the rising channel of high prosperity. There was an epidemic disturbance in the first quarter. It is speculated that the project acceptance and revenue confirmation of the company were delayed, which affected the growth rate to a certain extent, but it still achieved a year-on-year growth of 19.78%, and is optimistic about the annual growth rate.
In terms of business, the company’s smart cloud business achieved high growth throughout the year, or preliminarily completed the transformation from traditional license map provider to cloud SaaS service provider on behalf of the company. The annual revenue of Zhiyun business was 1.997 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.89%, accounting for 65.27% of the revenue. Smart cloud services mainly include navigation, high-precision maps, compliance storage and hosting, government and enterprise location big data, etc. The company defines its own industry as Maas industry (map as aservice). Based on the base advantages of map data, the company provides cloud integrated services for car manufacturers, government and enterprises and other customers.
In the whole year of 21 years, the company has made significant progress in smart cloud business: (1) in terms of data compliance, it has signed service orders with many core OEMs such as BMW, Daimler, Volkswagen, Volvo and Ford, as well as new forces of car making and technology giants; (2) In terms of navigation map, it has become a supplier of important strategic customers such as FAW Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen and Volkswagen global; According to the original business split caliber of the company, the navigation business revenue of the company was 902 million yuan in the whole year of 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 40.85%; (3) In terms of government and enterprise location big data, facing the rapid development of digital twin cities, the company has strengthened the R & D and iteration of minedata basic platform; The company achieved a position big data business revenue of 457 million yuan in the whole year, a significant increase of 54.02% over last year. Navigation business and location big data business are both high gross profit businesses, with gross profit margins of 97.5% and 73.14% respectively in 21 years; The overall smart cloud business also maintained a high gross profit of 75.62%. At present, the inflection point of the company’s revenue has been very clear. The high growth rate of high gross profit business indicates that the company’s performance may go to a higher level.
Readjust the business system, and the future of smart cabin, smart core and smart drive can be expected
In 2021, the company formed a new business system of smart cloud, smart drive, smart cabin and smart core. In addition to the high growth of smart cloud business, smart core and smart cabin business also achieved good progress:
1. Smart cabin (revenue 678 million yuan, year-on-year + 32.84%, accounting for 22.17%): its main business includes integrated software and hardware solutions for passenger / commercial vehicle networking. The company has the capability of cabin Tier-1. In addition, it continues to take the lead in the field of front loading of commercial heavy truck networking.
2. Smart core (revenue of 352 million yuan, year-on-year + 15.72%, accounting for 11.5%): (1) SOC: smart cockpit chip ac8015 is mass produced and shipped, with a cumulative supply of 200K, and it is expected to exceed one million by the end of 2022. (2) MCU: the annual MCU shipment volume and revenue contribution increased by more than ten times compared with that in 20 years. The direct cooperation vehicle manufacturers include SAIC, FAW, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Chang’an and new forces. In view of the current background of core shortage, we believe that there is no bottleneck at the demand side of the chip side, and the short-term low growth rate is mainly affected by the production capacity; The growth rate of the company’s chip business in 22 years mainly depends on the improvement of the supply side. In the long run, the subsidiary jiefa technology has high scarcity in the independent control of vehicle chips. Under the background of chip localization and substitution, we believe that the chip business will also become a strong driving force of the company.
3. Intelligent driving (revenue of 5.84 million yuan, year-on-year + 10.68%): it mainly refers to the provision of full stack integrated solutions including intelligent driving software and hardware for the mass production needs of different levels of automatic driving front loading. At present, the company has the ability of intelligent driving software and hardware integrated solution Tier-1, and has become the designated supplier of Kaiyi automobile auto drive system; In March 2022, he won the order of alpizi panoramic parking image system.
With the strong coupling of “compliance + map + algorithm + positioning” business, we are optimistic about the transformation of the company’s business model and the improvement of customer value for a long time
The company is a scarce target of high-precision map and data compliance business. In terms of business model, we judge that it is inevitable for vehicle end data to go to the cloud in the future, and the transformation of the company’s related business to SaaS charging mode will be natural. In addition, due to the strong synergy of the company’s map and data related businesses, we expect that with the help of data compliance business, we can further improve the value of single customers by locking the cooperation of core customers first and then extending the business vertically. With compliance as the fulcrum, the company is expected to leverage the map + algorithm + positioning business together in the future to truly realize explosive growth.
Investment advice
As a leader in automotive intelligence with “national team background”, compliance + map + chip will continue to promote the growth of the company. We maintain the company’s 22-23 year revenue forecast of 3.97/5.21 billion yuan unchanged, and add a 24-year revenue forecast of 6.66 billion yuan; Maintain the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company for 22-23 years of RMB 465 / 865 million, and increase the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company for 24 years to RMB 1.204 billion; Maintain the forecast of earnings per share (EPS) of 0.20/0.36 yuan for 22-23 years and 0.51 yuan for 24 years, corresponding to the closing price of 12.43 yuan / share on April 30, 2022. PE is 63 / 34 / 25 times respectively. It is highly recommended to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
1) risk of new product / business promotion falling short of expectations. 2) The risk of tight global supply of automotive chips. 3) The risk of macroeconomic downturn is that the development of smart car industry is less than expected.
