\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 16 Suzhou Sushi Testing Group Co.Ltd(300416) )
The invisible champion in the experimental field spanning more than 60 years, the double drive of "equipment + service" has started a new journey of "golden decade", and the "troika" is expected to exceed expectations and give a "buy" rating. 1) From 2014 to 2021, the company's revenue increased from 250 million to 1.5 billion, the net profit attributable to the parent increased from 40 million to 190 million, five times in seven years, and the CAGR was 28.9% and 25% respectively, which was significantly better than that of peers. 2) Distinctive view: the market is worried about the company's long-term growth space, but we judge that with the high prosperity of downstream industries such as military industry and semiconductors and the acceleration of domestic substitution, the company is making every effort to build China's scarce "chip component terminal" whole industry chain and multi field service ability. The company is stable and far-reaching, has accumulated a lot, and is expected to become a leader in third-party testing. 3) We expect that from 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 281 / 394 / 533 million, with a CAGR of 38%. With reference to peers, we will give a "buy" rating of 38 times PE in 2022, a target price of 37.5 yuan, a space of 40%.
The first growth curve: from vibration to synthesis, the leading position is stable. 1) Equipment is the cornerstone of the company's development: in 2021, the company's equipment revenue was 530 million, and the 20122021cagr was 15%; Although the profit proportion has dropped to about 26%, it is precisely because the company has been deeply cultivating the environmental test equipment for decades and has a deep insight and understanding of the industry that it can quickly open the test service market with obvious first mover advantage; 2) Innovate through the old and enrich the product line: the company started from vibration and has always been the "singles champion" of vibration equipment. It acquired Chongqing Sida in 2019, ranking among the forefront of climate equipment. The ceiling of the industry has expanded from several billion to ten billion. It is the first three comprehensive equipment in China, with full orders and import substitution. It is expected to maintain steady growth.
The second growth curve: from equipment to service, third-party testing is in the ascendant. 1) Perfect transformation, service has become the main source of the company's revenue and profit: in 2021, the proportion of service revenue and profit rose to 59% and 71% respectively, of which, the revenue of environmental test service was 656 million (+ 41.7%), the 20122021cagr was as high as 36.4%, the gross profit margin was 57.1%, which was nearly 10 PCT higher than that of peers, and the increase of service proportion will continue to push up the company's roe. 2) The high boom in the lower reaches has spawned a 10 billion market: there is strong demand in the lower reaches of aerospace, automobile and electronics. Military civilian integration and domestic substitution have spawned a huge market of more than 10 billion in China's third-party testing. 3) By the end of 2009, the company has established more than 14 laboratories in Chengdu and Beijing, and has set up a stable service network. By the end of 2009, it has set up more than 16 laboratories in the industry.
The third growth curve: from ring test to platform service provider, the sea embraces all rivers. 1) Semiconductor testing has become a new engine for performance growth, and the synergy of the acquisition of Yite has begun to show: in 2021, the revenue of Shanghai Yite reached 220 million, the net profit was 55.37 million (+ 147.17%), and the net interest rate has increased significantly from less than 10% before the acquisition to 21%, which has been highly recognized by Hisilicon, Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited(688256) , horizon and other Chinese first-class IC enterprises. 2) Enter the new service field and have a promising growth period: relying on the accumulated customer base of environmental test service and chip testing, the company has fully entered new fields such as EMC testing, material fatigue, software testing, component screening and so on.
Catalyst: cutting into new service areas; Launch new categories of equipment; The epidemic situation in China has been effectively controlled.
Risk tips: 1) the operation of subordinate laboratories is less than expected. 2) Risk of rising raw material costs.
