\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 048 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) )
Matters:
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 33.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, corresponding to eps0.1% 21 yuan.
Ping An View:
The profit increased slightly, and the outstanding is still sufficient: the company achieved a revenue of 35.54 billion yuan in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. The profit growth rate is lower than the revenue, which is mainly affected by the downward profit margin of real estate projects. During the period, the gross profit margin was 27.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5 percentage points. The contract liabilities at the end of the period were 436.61 billion yuan, 1.5 times the revenue of the past year, and the outstanding resources were still sufficient. It is planned to complete 42.31 million square meters in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%.
Sales investment contracted and the layout was more focused: the company’s 2022q1 sales were 90.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27%; The sales area was 5.539 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 22.9%; The average sales price is 16375 yuan / m2, an increase of 2% over the whole year of 2021. During the period, 6.07 million square meters of new construction was started, a year-on-year decrease of 41.3%, and the completed area was 4.71 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, completing 15.1% and 11.1% of the plans at the beginning of the year respectively. The company added 1.94 million square meters of construction area in 2022q1, with a total acquisition cost of 34.1 billion yuan. The sales area ratio and sales amount ratio of land acquisition are 35% and 37.6%, which is 46.6% lower and 2.9% higher than that in 2021. Among them, the expansion amount of 38 core cities accounted for nearly 90%, and the reserve structure was further optimized. As the new expansion project is more focused, the average floor price is 17577 yuan / m2, and the ratio of land price to house price is 107.3%, which is 64.8 percentage points higher than that in 2021.
Smooth cash return and stable financial position: the company realized cash return of 83.2 billion yuan in 2022q1, with a return rate of 92%, an increase of 8 percentage points over the same period of last year. At the end of the period, the cash short debt ratio (excluding restricted cash) is about twice, the net debt ratio and the asset liability ratio excluding advance receipts are 71.3% and 68.6%, and the asset liability structure is stable.
Investment suggestion: maintain the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.40 yuan, 2.48 yuan and 2.56 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 7.5 times, 7.3 times and 7.1 times respectively. The company’s financial stability and financing advantage are expected to improve the spring breeze and expand its leading edge with the help of short-term policies; Under the guidance of “three stabilities” in the medium and long term, the industry has changed from extensive development to fine operation. With the advantages of operation and control, the market share of the company is also expected to increase steadily and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) continuous downside risk of profit; 2) The policy care is not as strong as expected, resulting in the extension of the adjustment time and expansion of the property market, and the risk of damage to the company’s operation; 3) The continued deregulation pressure of the real estate market brings down the sales price and high impairment risk in the early stage.
