\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Events
In 2021, the company realized revenue of 66.209 billion yuan (+ 15.51%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23377 yuan (+ 17.15%), of which 21q4 revenue was 16.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 6.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 11.84%. In 2022q1, the company realized revenue of 27.548 billion yuan (+ 13.25%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.823 billion yuan (+ 16.08%).
Comments
In 2021, it ended smoothly, and 21q4 revenue maintained double-digit growth
21q4 revenue growth was flat month on month, mainly due to the high base of last year and the impact of the epidemic on the operation of some core markets. The performance of the pre collection end in 2021 was excellent, accumulating strength for 22 years of development. Throughout the year, the company still achieved steady growth in business performance, product price, channel profit, product structure and brand value:
The lower apparent shipment volume of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) products reduced the proportion of structure: in 2021, the revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) products and series wine products increased by 11.46%, 50.71% to 49.112 billion yuan and 12.619 billion yuan respectively, of which the proportion of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) product revenue increased by – 4.77 percentage points to 79.56% respectively, mainly due to: 1) the volume of the company increased by 3.78%, the price increased by 7.40%, and the end volume of the statement increased slightly; 2) The company adjusted the structure of a series of wines, accelerated investment, promoted the ton price to increase by 30.69% to 82700 yuan / ton year-on-year, and achieved a stable growth of 15.32%;
The base market achieved stable growth: in 2021, the revenue of the eastern, Western and central markets, which accounted for a large proportion of the company’s revenue, changed by + 32.40%, – 8.19%, + 31.90% year-on-year to RMB 18.782 billion, 16.979 billion and 11.005 billion respectively, and the proportion of revenue increased. In terms of dealers, in 2021, the company had a net increase of 180 to 2656 dealers, including 87 series of liquor dealers;
The profitability has been steadily improved, and the advance income performance is excellent. Benefiting from the upgrading of the overall structure, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company in 2021 changed by 1.19 and 0.53 percentage points respectively over the same period last year to 75.35% and 37.02%; In terms of expenses, during 2021, the company’s expense rate, sales expense rate and management expense rate changed by – 0.07, + 0.09 and – 0.13 percentage points to 11.86%, 9.82% and 4.65% respectively compared with the same period last year, including online advertising fee / offline advertising fee / TV advertising fee of RMB 161, 552 and 505 million; Operating cash flow increased by 82.16% over the same period last year to 26.775 billion yuan; Contract liabilities increased by + 4.44 billion yuan to 13.059 billion yuan compared with the same period last year.
2022q1 is in line with expectations, and the ship is setting sail again
The company’s profit growth rate is higher than the revenue growth rate, indicating that the structure has moved up steadily. 22q1 company took many measures simultaneously to achieve steady increase in profits: 1) the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) comprehensive payment price increased to 969 yuan / bottle, and the volume increased compared with the same period last year; 2) The company increased the development of high priced cultural and creative products to realize profit thickening; 3) While controlling the goods, strengthen market control to stabilize the wholesale price.
The profitability improved steadily, and the operating cash flow declined temporarily due to the impact of the epidemic. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of 2022q1 company changed by 1.98 and 1.06 percentage points respectively over the same period last year to 78.41% and 41.28%; During the period, the expense rate, sales expense rate and management expense rate changed by – 0.01, + 0.29 and – 0.31 percentage points to 9.28%, 7.38% and 3.76% respectively compared with the same period last year; The operating cash flow was -3.401 billion yuan, mainly due to the impact of the multi-point rebound of the epidemic in China in 22q1. The company reduced the financial pressure of dealers by reducing the proportion of cash collection in advance collection and optimizing order plan management, resulting in the decrease of cash received from selling goods and providing labor services, and the comprehensive impact of the high amount of cash received due from bank acceptance bills in the same period of last year, reflecting the flexible measures of the company; Contract liabilities changed from – 1.379 billion yuan to 3.607 billion yuan over the same period last year.
The performance of 22q2 is expected to continue high growth, and the return of volume added value will lock in the double-digit growth target of the whole year
In the short term, considering that the company relies on the digital system to steadily optimize the volume of traditional channels + increase the volume of new retail / ka e-commerce channels + increase the high price of cultural and creative wine + increase the comprehensive payment cost, the performance of 22q2 continues to increase with high certainty; In the medium and long term, considering: Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) strengthen precise management, comprehensively improve channel profits + optimize classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) quota, gradually clarify the core market + strengthen the brand building of series liquor, and gradually realize the return of value through price increase, we believe that in 2022, the company will accelerate the return of value while increasing volume, so as to lock in the double-digit growth target of the whole year.
Profit forecast and valuation
From 2022 to 2024, the company’s revenue growth rate was 15.1%, 14.6% and 14.5% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 18.1%, 17.7% and 17.0% respectively, and EPS was 7.1, 8.4 and 9.8 yuan respectively; PE was 23, 20 and 17 times respectively. Considering the accelerated release of the company’s reform dividend, the current valuation is cost-effective and maintains the buy rating.
Catalyst: the demand for Baijiu recovered more than expected, and the rating continued to rise.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic situation has repeatedly affected the dynamic sales of Baijiu; 2. Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price rise was lower than expected.
