\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 48 He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) )
Event: the company disclosed the first quarterly report of 2022. In 1q22, the company achieved a revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 235 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.2%.
Key points supporting rating
Under the impact of the 1q22 epidemic, revenue still achieved steady growth, and cost pressure led to a decline in gross profit margin.
(1) 1q22 company's revenue + 15.0% year-on-year. The company's products have certain gift attributes. The seasonal factors before the Spring Festival in 2022 have a certain impact on the sales of new year goods Festival. In addition, the multi-point spread of the epidemic has hindered the logistics, and the northern area of the company's key layout has been more significantly affected. In this context, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company still achieved double-digit growth. We believe that the strategic effect of the company's channel deepening and channel sinking is obvious. (2) 1q22's gross profit margin was 46.8%, with a year-on-year increase of - 4.1pct. The continuous rise in the prices of packaging materials and other raw materials in the first quarter brought cost pressure. The overall expense rate of 1q22 company decreased, and the sales / management / Finance / R & D expense rates were -2.2pct, - 1.2pct, + 0.1pct and + 0.1pct respectively year-on-year. 1q22 company's net interest rate was 21.0%, year-on-year - 0.7%.
We will continue to promote reform and look forward to new breakthroughs. In the past year, the company continued to promote a number of reforms, which are expected to bring positive changes. (1) On the channel side, the company promotes the deep cultivation of the existing market, strengthens the development of blank spots and channel sinking, and actively develops new channels such as campus, station and catering. (2) In terms of sales area, while deeply cultivating the advantageous market in North China, strengthen the development of markets in East China and southwest China, and strive to achieve a breakthrough. (3) On the product side, strengthen the research and development of new products and bring new growth points. (4) The company has completed share repurchase, and the mechanism is expected to be improved.
Outlook: the epidemic situation and the price fluctuation of raw materials will bring short-term disturbance, and the logic of long-term growth will remain unchanged. (1) In the short term, the multi-point spread of the epidemic has a negative impact on the company's sales, and the high price of raw materials has brought cost pressure to the company. If the epidemic situation eases in the second and third quarters and the influence of seasonal factors is eliminated, the performance growth is expected to accelerate month on month driven by the large volume of new products and channel expansion. (2) In the long run, the Growth Logic of the company's product development and channel expansion remains unchanged. On the product side, the sales of almond dew products have a solid foundation, and new products such as nuts and walnuts will create new growth points. On the channel side, the company will promote the deep cultivation of the existing market and the development of blank market. The e-commerce channel and the southern market are expected to become a new growth curve.
Valuation
According to the first quarterly report, we adjusted the previous profit forecast and expected EPS of 0.64, 0.76 and 0.89 yuan in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.6%, + 18.9% and + 16.6%, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the price of raw materials fluctuated, and the expansion of new products was less than expected.
