\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Event: Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) released the first quarterly report of 2022. The revenue of 22q1 was 2.988 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.002 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.46%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 996 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.02%. The revenue and performance of Q1 were in line with the previous business forecast.
The proportion of special a + and special a products continued to increase. In terms of products, the income of 22q1 special a + products / Special A / A / B / C / D / other products was 1.943/8.28/1.16/0.55/0.33/0.01/03 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.6% / + 30.42% / + 9.12% / – 9.22% / – 8.00% / – 29.05% / + 11.66%. Special a + products and a products continued to maintain a high growth, accounting for 93.04% of the main business income, an increase of 1.67 PCT year-on-year. In the 21 years since the fourth opening of Guoyuan, the price has been raised and upgraded. It is estimated that 22q1 has a strong performance, especially in Nanjing and other regions, with a relatively low base number and obvious estimated increment of v3.
High growth continued in the province and the development outside the province was relatively stable. By region, the income of 22q1 within / outside the province was 2.786192million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%/10.6%, accounting for 93.5%/6.5%. During the Spring Festival, Jiangsu was less affected by the epidemic, and the dynamic sales of secondary high-end Baijiu showed good performance. Specifically, the revenue of Huai’an / Nanjing / Southern Jiangsu / Central Jiangsu / Yancheng / Huaihai region increased by 17.6% / 27.1% / 28.2% / 36.0% / 12.8% / 39.3% year-on-year. The Nanjing market still maintained a high growth. The markets in southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu are in intensive cultivation and expansion, with a relatively prominent growth rate. The base Market Huai’an and more mature Yancheng market grew steadily. The Xuzhou market in Huaihai region is a high growth benchmark and the growth momentum remains unchanged. By the end of 22q1, there were 1011 dealers, a net decrease of 40 compared with the end of 21. Among them, there are 421 / 590 dealers inside / outside the province, 6 new dealers in Q1 and 14 / 60 new / reduced dealers outside the province.
22q1 gross profit margin increased, promotion investment increased, and cash flow remained healthy. 1) The comprehensive gross profit margin of 22q1 was 74.30%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.04pct, mainly due to the upward movement of product structure, the sales expense rate of 13.05% and a year-on-year increase of 1.21pct, mainly due to the more promotion activities in Q1, the increase of advertising investment (the sales expense of 22q1 increased by 37.4% year-on-year), the management expense rate of 1.94%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11pct, and the net sales interest rate of 33.55%, which was basically the same year-on-year (- 0.07pct). 2) 22q1 sales cash collection was 2.563 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.95%. The net cash flow from operating activities was 612 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. The cash flow was relatively healthy. By the end of 22q1, contract liabilities and other current liabilities were about 1.284 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.052 billion yuan compared with the end of 21, mainly due to the decrease of advance receipts and confirmed output tax to be transferred due to seasonal factors.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company has made a successful start with a solid base in the province. While having strong risk resistance ability, the company can enjoy the bonus of Baijiu scale expansion and price belt upgrading in the province. In the past 22 years, the company has set the tone of “seeking speed in good times”. It is expected to continue to achieve high-quality development through optimizing product structure, intensive cultivation of the market in the province and exploring the market outside the province. Maintain the net profit forecast of 22-24 years to be RMB 2.51/30.7/3.66 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 2.00/2.45/2.92, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 22 / 18 / 15 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales of V series and Sikai are less than expected, the market competition in the province is intensified, and the epidemic situation is severe.
