\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 885 Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) )
Event:
Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) released the first quarterly report of 2022
In terms of business, in the first quarter of 2022, the company transported 3.458 million passengers yoy-22.93%, equivalent to 64.71% of the level in 2019; Ask and RPK decreased by 12.34% and 20.72% respectively year-on-year in 2021, equivalent to 78.64% and 61.15% of the level in 2019; The occupancy rate was 66.27% / yoy-7.00pct, a year-on-year decrease of 18.95pct in 2019.
On the one hand, the company's financial revenue in the first quarter of 2019 was 1.76 billion yuan / yoy, which was 1.72 billion yuan in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -544 million yuan / yoy-95.45%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company was -554 million yuan / yoy-128.67%, a year-on-year decrease of 235.87% and 269.74% respectively.
Key investment points:
The epidemic rebounded at the end of the quarter, and the revenue in the first quarter was flat year-on-year
Benefiting from the recovery of aviation demand during the Spring Festival, the cumulative passenger volume of the company in the first two months increased by 5.27% year-on-year. In March, due to the impact of multiple local outbreaks in China and industrial safety accidents, the passenger volume in a single month decreased significantly by 60.63% year-on-year, which is only equivalent to 40% of the level in the same period in 2019. Therefore, the ask and passenger volume of the company in the first quarter decreased by 12.34% and 22.93% respectively year-on-year, but the operating revenue increased by 1.17% year-on-year, basically reaching the level of the same period in 2021, or due to the year-on-year increase of passenger kilometer revenue in the peak season of spring transportation in this period.
The oil price is running at a high level, the cost is under pressure, and the loss is expanding
On the cost side, although the company's transportation capacity investment decreased in the current period, the average oil distribution price increased by about 60% year-on-year, driving the operating cost to increase by 270 million yuan, up 9.81% year-on-year. Cask rose 25.26% year-on-year to 0.38 yuan. On the expense side, the company's financial expenses in the current period increased by 218 million year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase of 526.25%, which is expected to be caused by year-on-year changes in exchange gains and losses. Under the joint influence of the above factors, although the company's income tax expenses decreased by 120 million yuan year-on-year, the net loss attributable to the parent company still increased by 266 million yuan.
The fundamentals are still at the bottom of the large cycle, and wait patiently for the inflection point to appear
Under the influence of repeated epidemics, high oil prices and other factors, the fundamentals of the aviation industry are at the bottom of the large cycle level. Considering the reality of China's per capita medical resources and immune barrier, we expect to wait until the third quarter before looking forward to and liberalizing relevant matters. The inflection point of the industry still needs to wait patiently.
As a private airline company with leading operation strength in China, the company has comprehensively arranged two tracks of full-service and low-cost, continuously optimized the airline network structure, and continued to increase the proportion of flights at class I and II airports in summer and autumn 2022. At the same time, Boeing 737max has regained airworthiness license in China in December 2021. It is expected that the introduction of Jiuyuan brand fleet will continue to recover. In addition, in the post epidemic era, the utilization rate of the company's wide body machine will increase, so as to jointly help the company return to the high-speed growth period. When the upward phase of the cycle comes, the company is expected to fully benefit.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 13.106 billion yuan, 18.777 billion yuan and 24.668 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be -394 million yuan, 1.380 billion yuan and 2.107 billion yuan respectively. The PE corresponding to 20232024 will be 17.39 times and 11.39 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: (1) permanent loss risk: Bankruptcy caused by cash flow fracture and passive substantial dilution of shares caused by huge additional issuance at the bottom; (2) Periodic impact risk: at the macro level, the economy fluctuates greatly, the epidemic breaks out again, and major natural disasters, vaccination and related drug research and development are blocked; In terms of industry, major policy changes, aviation accidents and intensified industry competition.
