\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 919 Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) )
Event:
Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) released the first quarterly report of 2022: in the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 105530 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.75%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.73%, and the basic earnings per share was 1.72 yuan / share, a year-on-year increase of 77.32%.
Key investment points:
The off-season is not light, and the performance in the first quarter slightly exceeded the expectation. The centralized transportation and wharf business of 2022q1 company both achieved high growth. ① Centralized transportation: the freight volume was 4.3658 million TEU, a year-on-year decrease of 9.15%. However, the bottleneck problem of the supply chain still exists. The freight rates of the main routes are basically stable. The company realized the revenue of centralized transportation routes of 67.267 billion yuan, an increase of 62.44% year-on-year. ② Terminal: container throughput of COSCO Shipping Port was 302916 million TEU, with a year-on-year increase of 0.34%. Of which, 7.4874 million TEU were held by the wharf, with a year-on-year increase of 39.55%; Shares of 228042 million TEUs in the wharf decreased by 8.13% year-on-year.
Slightly affected by the epidemic in the short term, it is expected to maintain a high boom throughout the year. After the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, the landside traffic was affected. After entering April, the vehicle freight flow in Shanghai decreased significantly. The blocking of landside logistics means that the delivery volume decreases, that is, the demand for centralized transportation decreases. However, at present, the main contradiction affecting the container freight rate is still on the supply side. Judging from the empty and heavy container stacking at Los Angeles port and the number of container queues, the problem of port congestion in the United States has not been substantially improved. The first quarter has always been the off-season of centralized transportation, which still failed to solve the problem of port congestion. Considering that it is about to enter the peak season, it is judged that centralized transportation is expected to maintain a high prosperity throughout the year.
Next, the key point is whether the industry can overcome the cycle and move towards value. 202324 is the centralized production period of ships. At present, there are hidden worries about surplus at the supply end. However, considering that IMO is about to implement the detailed rules for carbon reduction and that the proportion of old ships is relatively high, the actual investment pressure of transport capacity in the future may be offset by the dismantling of old ships. Not only that, the industry has now passed the key reshuffle period, and the position of the head liner company is becoming more and more stable. Driven by the optimization of the pattern, the demand for cooperation between liner companies is gradually stronger than the willingness to compete. Maersk, the leader, has repeatedly stated that it will not put in the transport capacity disorderly. If the industry can maintain orderly competition in the next two years, it may usher in a new round of value revaluation.
The profit forecast and investment rating predict that the operating revenue of Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) 20222024 will be 381783 billion yuan, 290499 billion yuan and 241702 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 121798 billion yuan, 59.990 billion yuan and 33.839 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 233, 435 and 7.71 respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the import demand of Europe and the United States has fallen sharply, the epidemic in China has exceeded expectations, the orders for new ships have increased more than expected, the signing of the long-term association is less than expected, and the fuel cost has increased more than expected
