\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 120 Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) )
Event:
Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) 2021 annual report and 2022 quarterly report have been released.
In terms of finance, in 2021, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) achieved an operating revenue of 41.729 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.15%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.402 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.88%; Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 13.128 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.07%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 696 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 95.87%. In 2022q1, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) achieved an operating revenue of 11.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.66%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 122.43%.
In terms of operation, the business volume of Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) year 2021 was 18.402 billion tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 30.10%, and the single ticket revenue was 2.15 yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.40%. In the first quarter of 2022, the business volume completed 4.31 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 19.62%; The single ticket income was 2.53 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.99%.
Key investment points:
The improvement trend of unit price is clear, and the market share increases steadily
In terms of market share, Yunda’s market share reached 16.99% in 2021, ranking second in the industry; In 2022q1, Yunda’s market share further climbed to 17.79%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.36pcts, and the market share maintained a steady growth. In terms of single ticket income, 2021q4 single ticket income was 2.30 yuan, an increase of 1.88% year-on-year and 10.81% month on month; The single ticket income in 2022q1 was 2.53 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.99% and a month on month increase of 9.98%. The improvement trend of unit price is clear.
Capital expenditure is maintained at a relatively high scale, and it is expected that after the demand is released, the capacity climb will bring performance flexibility
In 2021, Yunda’s capital expenditure reached 9.219 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.74%, of which the amount invested in land and sorting center reached 6.708 billion yuan, and the investment in inflationary assets still maintained a high scale. On the cost side, in 2021, the transfer cost of Yunda single ticket was 0.82 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.59%, and the cost reduction and efficiency increase continued to be promoted.
In 2022q1, Yunda achieved a net profit deduction of 400 million yuan, an increase of 122.43% year-on-year, a net profit deduction of 0.09 yuan, an increase of 0.04 yuan year-on-year and a slight decrease of 0.04 yuan month on month. In the first quarter, Yunda maintained the policy of not closing for the Spring Festival, as well as the impact of multiple factors such as rising oil prices and epidemic control, its single ticket profitability was temporarily impacted compared with 2021q4, but with the recovery of demand, the invested capacity was gradually released, Yunda’s performance flexibility can be expected.
Signs of reversal of the epidemic are beginning to appear, and we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of e-commerce express sector
The epidemic only affects the rhythm of the release of express demand, and does not change the medium and long-term trend of the industry pattern to be better and the volume and price rise together. Since 2021q4, the e-commerce express industry has switched to a new stage of high-quality development with high revenue growth and low capital expenditure growth. Yunda has benefited from the improvement of the industry structure and entered a dividend period of simultaneous rise in volume and price and rapid release of performance. The closure of the epidemic in the core cities since March has had a short-term impact on the business volume of the industry and companies. However, with the announcement that the social aspects of some regions have been cleared in Shanghai, the short-term impact of the epidemic is fading. The industry and enterprises are expected to benefit from the rebound in demand after the closure. They are optimistic that the leading enterprises will benefit from the investment opportunities brought by the improvement of the industry pattern and the continuous improvement of profitability.
The profit forecast and investment rating are adjusted according to the announcement of the company. It is estimated that the operating revenue of Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) 20222024 will be 50.502 billion yuan, 58.477 billion yuan and 67.086 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.467 billion yuan, 3.157 billion yuan and 3.817 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE from 20222024 will be 16.58, 12.95 and 10.72 million yuan respectively. Due to the impact of the closure of the epidemic, Yunda’s share price has been adjusted, the valuation has reached a reasonable range, and the “buy” rating has been maintained.
Risk tips: the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected, the price war is restarted, the management improvement is lower than expected, the cost control is lower than expected, and the franchisees have burst their positions
