\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 754 Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) )
Event:
Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) released the first quarterly report of 2022: 1) the operating revenue of 2022q1 was 2.322 billion yuan / + 0.97%, of which the operating revenue of 2022q1 hotel business was 2.264 billion yuan / + 1.29%, and the revenue of food and catering business was 58.56 million yuan / – 9.82%; 2) The net profit attributable to the parent company was – 120 million yuan (2021q1-183 million yuan), a decrease of 62.68 million yuan compared with the loss in 2021q1; The net profit deducted from non return to parent company is RMB – 218 million (RMB 2021q1-161 million), which is 56.68 million yuan larger than the loss in 2021q1, including non recurring income of RMB 97.82 million, mainly relocation compensation income of RMB 89.66 million (No. 630, Middle Sichuan Road, Shanghai).
Key investment points:
The epidemic disturbs hotel performance, and overseas hotels will begin to recover. 1) In 2022q1, domestic hotels realized an operating revenue of 1.691 billion yuan / – 8.23%, accounting for 74.73%, including 108 million yuan / – 29.13% of the early-stage service fee income and 687 million yuan / + 3.09% of the continuous franchise fee income; 2) Overseas hotels realized a revenue of 572 million yuan / + 46.12%, accounting for 25.27%. Louvre group realized a net profit loss of 23.9 million euros. Normally, January February is the off-season and Q3 is the peak season. With the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies in France and Europe, it is expected that the operation of overseas hotels will gradually improve.
Affected by the rebound of the epidemic in China, it fell month on month, and the impact of the low base overseas in the same period increased significantly. 1) Domestic: 2022q1revpar was 104.41 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.69% and a month on month increase of – 22.03%, recovering to 72.62% in the same period in 2019; OCC was 50.81%, year-on-year -8.12pct and month on month -11.37pct; ADR was 205.50 yuan, up + 3.58% year on year and – 11.37% month on month; 2) Overseas: 2022q1revpar was 25.95 euros, up + 47.28% year-on-year and – 12.18% month on month, recovering to 79.75% in the same period in 2019; OCC was 47.72%, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.44pct and a month on month increase of -5.17pct; ADR was 54.39 euros, a year-on-year increase of + 11.98% and a month on month increase of – 2.67%.
The speed of opening stores decreased slightly, and the middle and high-end led the expansion of high-quality stores. 1) As of March 31, 2022, the total number of contracted hotels has reached 15627, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.51% and a month on month increase of + 1.65%, of which 10757 hotels have opened / + 12.49%; 2) In 2022q1, the company opened 232 hotels / – 33.14%, accounting for 15.47% of the 1500 hotels planned to open in the whole year / – 7.67pct year-on-year, and the opening speed (number of stores opened / number of hotels in stock in the previous quarter) was 2.19% / – 1.50pct; 3) Focus on asset light expansion. In 2022q1, 88 hotels were withdrawn / + 37.50%, and 144 hotels were increased / – 8.28%, including 148 franchise stores, with 9840 stores in stock, accounting for 91.48%; The net increase of Direct stores was – 4, and the stock was 917, accounting for 8.52%; 4) The quality of Tuodian is excellent, and the middle and high-end is the absolute main force. In 2022q1, the number of medium and high-end hotels increased by 142 / – 23.66%, accounting for 98.61%; There were 2 economy hotels, 31 more than 2021q1, accounting for 1.39%.
The cost is in line with expectations. 1) The operating cost of 2022q1 was 1.781 billion yuan / + 24.35%, with a month on month ratio of – 4.20%, accounting for 76.71% / + 14.42pct; 2) In 2022q1, the sales expense was 159 million yuan / – 67.74%, and the sales expense ratio was 6.84% / – 14.50pct, with a month on month ratio of -2.98pct; The management fee is 585 million yuan / + 11.95%, and the management fee rate is 25.19% / + 2.47 PCT, a month on month increase of + 3.33 PCT; The financial expense is 114 million yuan / – 32.73%, and the financial expense rate is 4.92% / – 2.47 PCT, with a month on month increase of + 1.03 PCT; The R & D cost is 11 million yuan / – 23.52%, and the R & D cost rate is 0.47% / – 0.15pct, with a chain comparison of + 0.65pct; Third, the rate is 36.95% / -14.50pct, with a month on month ratio of + 1.39pct.
Investment rating: we expect the company to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 13.896/18.472/25.837 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 23% / 33% / 40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 717 / 1911 / 3461 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 612% / 167% / 81%; The corresponding valuation is 80.16/30.07/16.60xpe. Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the global epidemic has repeatedly affected travel, the speed of store expansion is lower than expected, the industry market competition is intensified, macroeconomic fluctuations, and the improvement of organizational structure integration is lower than expected.
