\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 828 Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) )
Event:
Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) disclosed that the first quarterly report of 2022: the company realized an operating revenue of 3.375 billion yuan in 2022q1, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 698 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 476 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and the performance was in line with expectations.
Key investment points:
The disturbance of the epidemic has put pressure on revenue, and non recurring profits and losses have exacerbated performance fluctuations. East China is the company’s main market (revenue accounted for 59.5% in 2021), and Shanghai contributes to the main performance of East China. It is expected that Q1 of the company will be greatly affected by the disturbance of Shanghai epidemic and travel control, and the revenue will be under pressure. The year-on-year decrease in the net profit attributable to the parent company was mainly due to the large fluctuations in the book value of the investment income of the investment enterprise (the income from changes in fair value in Q1 decreased by 59.8% year-on-year). The deduction of the net profit not attributable to the parent company was in line with the expectation.
The gross profit margin decreased slightly and the expenses were properly controlled. The gross profit margin of Q1 decreased slightly by 1.1pcts to 61.5% year-on-year, which is expected to be mainly affected by the decline of the gross profit margin of entrusted business. Q1 sales expense ratio decreased by 2.7pcts to 8.2% year on year, maintaining a relatively low level; The management expense ratio also decreased by 1.1pcts to 10.5% year-on-year, and the company’s expenses were properly controlled.
Profit forecast and investment rating. The epidemic has put pressure on the performance for a short time. We are optimistic that with the continuous promotion of the transformation strategy of “reducing leverage, neglecting assets and focusing on operation”, the company will gradually repair its profits and usher in the synchronous optimization of financial leverage and operational efficiency. Based on this, maintaining the previous performance forecast, it is estimated that the revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 173.50/190.05/20.625 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.8% / 9.5% / 8.5% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.616/3.310/3.923 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.8% / 26.5% / 18.5% respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE was 8 / 7 / 6x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the expansion of shopping malls is not as expected; The profit and loss fluctuation of changes in fair value is greater than expected; Financial leverage risk; Risk of increased competition; Market demand recovered less than expected.
