The wind and cloud are stirring and competing with each other. When the carbon peak and carbon neutralization targets stimulate the wind outlet of the new energy station, the photovoltaic industry ushered in an outbreak in a new round of prosperity.
In 2021, China's PV installed capacity increased by 54.88gw, further expanding the advantage of China's cumulative grid connected capacity of PV power generation. The new installed capacity data in the first quarter of this year is "not light in the off-season", which once again makes the industry full of expectations for the annual demand of photovoltaic.
The financial disclosure window is about to close, and the performance report card of A-share photovoltaic company last year surfaced. According to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, as of April 29, 69 companies had a cumulative revenue of more than 740 billion yuan and a net profit of more than 70 billion yuan last year when there were still six photovoltaic companies that had not disclosed the financial statements of 2021. These two data both exceed the level of the same period in 2020.
"China's foreign policies continue to increase, and the global photovoltaic fundamentals continue to be high-profile." A brokerage analyst told the 21st Century Business Herald that although the price of the industrial chain continued to rise last year, which triggered fierce upstream and downstream game sentiment, with the expected large-scale silicon production capacity this year, the terminal demand will be greatly improved.
In fact, driven by the two wheel drive of China's distributed power stations and large base projects, the demand of the photovoltaic industry has indeed been significantly driven. Moreover, the price rise of the industrial chain, which has plagued the industry for a long time since last year, has just become an effective response to the strong terminal demand.
However, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the price fluctuation of the industrial chain not only tested the anti risk ability of photovoltaic companies in all links, but also redistributed the profits of the industrial chain. At the same time, with the aggravation of "Matthew effect", the phenomenon of "top heavy" profits in the photovoltaic industry chain is difficult to alleviate in the short term. Even this year, the position of the most profitable photovoltaic company may change hands.
five photovoltaic faucets leveraging nearly half of the profits
In April this year, Guangdong Gaojing Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) announced the completion of round a financing of 1.6 billion yuan. A familiar figure appeared among investors - Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) ( Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) . SH).
In recent years, this leading photovoltaic cell enterprise has shown itself as a professional manufacturing enterprise, and battery shipments have continued to rise. However, in 2021, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) has encountered the most severe business test in recent years.
On April 21, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) issued a correction announcement of the performance forecast and revised the profit expectation.
According to the announcement, affected by inventory falling price, year-end bonus payment and power rationing, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) corrected net profit was a loss of 80 million yuan to 140 million yuan, and the amount of loss increased by 70 million yuan. After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the company expected a loss of 195 million yuan to 295 million yuan last year.
The loss is a foregone conclusion, and the core reason is the rise in the price of the industrial chain Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) said, "compared with the same period of last year, in 2021, due to the continuous rise in the prices of upstream raw materials, especially silicon materials and silicon chips, while the rise in the price of battery chips is less than that of raw materials, resulting in a decline in the gross profit margin of battery chip sales."
In fact, in order to deal with the price contradiction of the industrial chain that is difficult to reconcile in the short term, the head photovoltaic enterprises have embarked on the road of "vertical integration", in order to reduce the production cost of the whole link through internal coordination and integration. However, this mode cannot be realized in a short time. Therefore, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) can only increase the cooperation with the outside world in purchasing raw materials, and even alleviate the problem by taking shares in silicon wafer manufacturers.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that under the background of strong upstream and downstream game in the industrial chain last year, the "Matthew effect" of the photovoltaic industry became more prominent.
According to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, the 69 A-share photovoltaic companies that have announced their performance achieved a cumulative operating revenue of 745217 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 70.384 billion yuan in 2021. Among them, 11 leading photovoltaic enterprises achieved a total operating revenue of 429790 billion yuan, accounting for 57.67%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 45.186 billion yuan, accounting for 64.20%.
It is worth mentioning that the five most profitable companies are all silicon material and silicon wafer manufacturers Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ( Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) . SH), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) . SH), Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) ( Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) . SH), Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) ( Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) . SH), Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) ( Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . SZ) in 2021, the net profits attributable to shareholders of listed companies were RMB 9.086 billion, RMB 8.255 billion, RMB 5.725 billion and RMB 4.03 billion respectively, accounting for 48.74% in total.
"The strong demand has caused the imbalance between supply and demand in the upstream, and the price of silicon material and silicon wafer has risen, which directly drives the volume and price of relevant enterprises to rise." The aforementioned analyst told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
As a result, with the support of substantial price growth, the net profits of silicon material and silicon wafer enterprises almost doubled in 2021. The pressure of battery and component enterprises is not small, and the performance is obviously inferior.
In 2021, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) ( Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) . SZ), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ( Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) . SH) and Jingke energy (688223. SH) realized net profits attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 2.039 billion, RMB 1.804 billion and RMB 1.141 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 35.31%, 46.77% and 9.59% respectively.
But it is worth affirming that under the pressure of rising upstream costs, the profitability of component manufacturers continues to be repaired. In the first quarter of this year, the net profit growth of the above three component manufacturers increased significantly. Among them, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) all achieved more than double year-on-year growth.
this year's photovoltaic "profit king" or change the court
On April 27, the leading photovoltaic enterprise Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) handed over the performance report of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
Although the performance is lower than the market expectation, the A-share photovoltaic enterprise with the highest market value still holds the position of "profit king in 2021". The financial report shows that Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) last year, it achieved an operating revenue of 80.932 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.27%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 9.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.24%.
Compared with Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ranked second, the net profit of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) last year was more than 800 million yuan higher. However, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the profit gap between the two companies is narrowing - in 2020, the net profit of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) was 2.37 times that of Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) .
"Although both companies carry out vertical integration layout, the actual product revenue structure of the two companies is still very different.
”The aforementioned analyst told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) has become a vested interest in firmly occupying the market share of silicon materials under the background of the upward movement of the profit center of the whole photovoltaic industry chain last year.
the main products of Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) photovoltaic business are silicon materials, cells and modules Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) 's main products are silicon wafers, batteries and components. According to the financial report of 2021, the battery and module businesses of the two companies are the largest source of revenue, of which Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) accounts for 72.23% and Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) accounts for 39.27%.
However, in terms of gross profit margin, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) with a higher proportion of component business obviously does not have the upper hand. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's components was 17.06%, much higher than 8.81% of Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) . However, Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) made up for the lack of profitability of battery components with the ultra-high gross profit margin of 66.69% of silicon business - last year, the company's gross profit of silicon reached 12.5 billion yuan.
It is undeniable that the profit advantage of silicon material manufacturers will continue this year, and even lead to the change of the "profit king in 2022" of the photovoltaic industry.
In the first quarter of this year, the three major A-share silicon enterprises Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) respectively realized net profits attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 5.194 billion yuan, 4.312 billion yuan and 3.122 billion yuan, leading among all photovoltaic enterprises.
"Recently, the price of photovoltaic silicon material has risen to more than 250 yuan / kg, showing a continuous rising trend. On the one hand, it comes from the strong demand for terminals. On the other hand, because some old production capacity is inspected in turn for safety after the new production capacity is put into operation, the supply release is not as much as expected." Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the latest research report points out.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that at the performance exchange meeting held in Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) recently, the management of the company was still optimistic about the price of silicon material, believed that the supply would continue to be tight in 2022, and predicted that the price of silicon material is expected to remain above 200000 yuan / ton this year.
This means that in the short term, the phenomenon of "top heavy" profits in the photovoltaic industry chain is difficult to alleviate.
In terms of overall demand, the new installed capacity of China's photovoltaic industry chain in 2022 is worth looking forward to. According to the data recently released by the national energy administration, in the first quarter of this year, the off-season of the photovoltaic industry was not light, and the new installed capacity was 13.21gw, an increase of 148% over the same period last year.
Therefore, in the case of clear vision of the industrial chain, the balance of the industrial chain game is tilting towards the direction of "terminal acceptance of price rise".
