Oil and gas prices rose, and the value of coal and coal chemical industry was highlighted
The global daily demand for crude oil in 2021 is about 96 million barrels, which is significantly higher than the average daily demand of 91 million barrels in 2020. This figure is expected to increase to 100 million barrels in 2022. While global crude oil demand continues to rise, OPEC believes that the current economic recovery is still fragile, so it has maintained its cautious production increase strategy. The mismatch between demand and supply has become the main reason for the rise of crude oil in the previous year.
High coal prices and the implementation of the long-term association policy have promoted the long-term profitability of coal enterprises. Stable performance income brings considerable cash inflow to listed companies, supports listed companies to pay high proportion dividends, and plays a strong supporting role in the stock price in the current depressed market environment.
As crude oil prices rise, coal chemical products gain cost advantages. At the same time, the supply and demand of chemical products continued to be tight, and the price rose, opening up profit upside space for coal chemical enterprises.
High oil prices have prompted oil companies to increase capital expenditure on exploration and exploitation, benefiting the oil service industry
In recent years, countries around the world have announced energy transformation policies, increased the construction layout of green energy, and gradually increased the concern that traditional fossil energy will be replaced. At the same time, with the spread of the epidemic in 2020 and the diving of international crude oil prices, oil and gas companies have become cautious about the exploration expenditure for increasing reserves, and the proved reserves of several major international oil giants have continued to decline. After a year’s rise, the oil price has entered a high operating state. The inflation caused by high oil price makes the market pay more attention to the supply of fossil fuels, and it is reasonable to increase exploration expenditure. According to the strategic guidelines issued by China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) early this year, the global capital expenditure on oil and gas exploration and development is expected to increase by 24% year-on-year, and the oil service industry is expected to benefit.
The fundamentals of wind power and photovoltaic are still good, and the valuation falls into a reasonable range
Since this year, the overall performance of the A-share market has been sluggish. As a subordinate of power equipment, the wind power photovoltaic sector has led the decline, and the overall performance is poor. However, after market adjustment, the current valuations of the two sectors have entered a two-year low. The valuation depression of photovoltaic sector in recent two years appeared in the first half of 2020, when covid-19 epidemic was the most serious period, and A-Shares fell rapidly. The current market environment is similar to that at that time. The epidemic control measures inhibit the economic operation, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. However, after rapidly controlling the spread of the epidemic in 2020, the photovoltaic sector opened a rising market for up to one and a half years. We believe that there is no significant change in the fundamentals of the photovoltaic sector, and the market is caused by the concentrated outbreak of short-term adverse factors. It is expected that with the eradication of the epidemic in Shanghai in the future, the market will stabilize and reopen the upward cycle.
Risk warning: OPEC countries increase production significantly; Changes in energy transformation policies; The approval of new energy projects was less than expected.
