Event:
Xinhua news agency, Beijing, April 29 - the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 29 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work and consider the national talent development plan during the 14th five year plan. General secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping presided over the meeting.
Comments:
(1) face the problem and set the tone. The economic situation is relatively severe
The meeting pointed out that the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic and the crisis in Ukraine have led to an increase in risks and challenges, an increase in the complexity, severity and uncertainty of China's economic development environment, and new challenges in stabilizing growth, employment and prices.
Comments: the economic data in the first two months of this year performed well, generally exceeding market expectations. However, according to the economic data in March, consumption, export, manufacturing investment and real estate investment weakened in an all-round way, and only infrastructure investment improved from January to February. High frequency data show that consumption and real estate investment may continue to be under pressure in April. CPI is expected to rise further compared with March, and the downward speed of PPI slows down. The current round of China's epidemic has had a significant impact on the economy. There is still uncertainty superimposed on overseas geopolitical conflicts. The triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation facing China's economy is still heavy.
(2) in terms of epidemic prevention and control, we insist on dynamic clearing, but emphasize the need to effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development according to the new characteristics of virus transmission. The original text: the meeting stressed that the epidemic should be prevented, the economy should be stable and development should be safe, which is the clear requirement of the Party Central Committee. According to the new characteristics of virus variation and transmission, we should effectively coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, unswervingly adhere to the people first and life first, adhere to external defense input and internal defense rebound, adhere to dynamic zeroing, protect people's life safety and health to the greatest extent, and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development.
Comments: in terms of epidemic prevention and control, the meeting proposed to adhere to dynamic zeroing, which means that the current tone of strict prevention and control will not change significantly, but it also proposed to effectively coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development according to the new characteristics of virus variation and transmission, so as to minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development. We believe that this indicates that the overly rigid epidemic prevention policies implemented in some areas in the early stage will be corrected to a certain extent, and the epidemic prevention and control policies will be further optimized to increase flexibility and accuracy, so as to avoid large-scale and long-term regional sealing and control.
(3) under the increasing downward pressure on the economy, we still adhere to the expected goal of economic and social development for the whole year. The follow-up policy of stable growth with greater intensity is expected, and the fiscal policy plays a leading role
The meeting called for strengthening macro policy adjustment, stabilizing the economy, striving to achieve the expected goal of economic and social development throughout the year, and maintaining the economic operation within a reasonable range. We should speed up the implementation of the established policies, implement policies such as tax rebates, tax reductions and fees, and make good use of all kinds of monetary policy tools.
Comments: the meeting called for efforts to achieve the expected goal of economic and social development for the whole year, which showed that the GDP growth target of about 5.5% remained unchanged this year. We estimate that in order to achieve the annual GDP growth target of + 5.5%, the average quarterly GDP from Q2 to Q4 should reach at least + 1.54% month on month, and the corresponding GDP from Q2 to Q4 should be at least + 5.13%, + 6.01% and + 6.05% year on year respectively. It is not easy to achieve. Therefore, the follow-up policies must be more active, and the steady growth policies in all aspects need to be combined. On the whole, a large number of measures to stabilize growth proposed at the meeting need to rely on fiscal efforts, such as the implementation of tax rebates, tax cuts and fee reductions, the comprehensive strengthening of infrastructure construction, and the implementation of a package of relief and assistance policies for industries, small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households seriously affected by the epidemic. This is in line with the fact that we have always stressed that finance is the protagonist of steady growth this year.
(4) stabilize domestic demand, comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and support the economy
The meeting called for efforts to expand China's demand, give play to the key role of effective investment, strengthen the guarantee of land, energy use and environmental assessment, and comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction. We should give play to the leading role of consumption in the economic cycle. We should stabilize market players and implement a package of relief and assistance policies for industries, small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households seriously affected by the epidemic.
Comments: in terms of stabilizing domestic demand, the meeting emphasized the support for investment and consumption, especially the strengthening of infrastructure construction. Combined with the "accelerating the construction of new infrastructure and improving the level of traditional infrastructure" stressed at the 11th meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission on April 26, we should be moderately ahead of schedule, lay out the infrastructure conducive to leading industrial development and safeguarding national security, and grasp the degree of ahead of schedule construction "and the five major infrastructure areas proposed, which further shows that in the face of the downward pressure on the macro economy In the objective economic environment with increasing internal and external uncertainty, infrastructure investment will play a core role in steady growth this year and is expected to accelerate further.
According to the data, since the beginning of the year, the national development and Reform Commission has approved 32 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 520 billion yuan, mainly in transportation, water conservancy, energy, high technology and other industries. In Q1 last year, the national development and Reform Commission approved 16 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 45.4 billion yuan. In H1 last year, the national development and Reform Commission approved 40 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 246.4 billion yuan. Since the beginning of the year, the investment amount of projects approved by the national development and Reform Commission has reached more than twice that of the first half of last year. In terms of project funds, in 2022q1, the scale of newly issued special bonds nationwide was 1298.1 billion yuan, accounting for 89% of the amount approved in advance of 1.46 trillion yuan and 36% of the annual issuance plan of 3.65 trillion yuan. This year, the issuance of special bonds was significantly accelerated, superimposed on the effective connection of the 1.2 trillion yuan of special bonds issued at the end of last year, and the infrastructure funds were sufficient in the first half of the year. Throughout the year, Wang Xiaolong, director of the Treasury Department of the Ministry of finance, said that the Ministry of finance will continue to strengthen its guidance to local governments to ensure that the issuance of special bond quotas issued this year will be completed by the end of September. Compared with last year, the trend of advancing and accelerating infrastructure construction this year is more obvious.
(5) the meeting once again emphasized that "real estate is not fried", but recognized the marginal relaxation measures of real estate
The meeting stressed the need to effectively control key risks and hold the bottom line of no systemic risks. We should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
Comments: the meeting once again proposed to adhere to the principle of "housing without speculation", but proposed to support all localities to improve real estate policies from local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. The overall tone is similar to the positioning of real estate at the Symposium on financial support for the real economy jointly held by the people's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission on April 19. The statement on real estate at this meeting is the further recognition of the central level on the marginal relaxation measures of real estate regulation and control in many places in the early stage. The relaxation of regulation and control is expected to spread in a wider range, and the relaxation intensity may be further strengthened.
