Key investment points
Core view: in terms of changes in the share of global exports, China and Southeast Asia have changed in 20q1 and 21q3. We compared the export situation of Southeast Asia and China. The coincidence degree of commodity categories in the export structure is high, and there is a possibility of substitution. However, there is still a large gap in the basic investment in human capital, infrastructure and other industries. The transfer of China's exports to Southeast Asia has not yet occurred in March. The 16% decline in Shenzhen's mechanical and electrical exports has not brought a synchronous high increase in Southeast Asia's mechanical and electrical exports. In April, the shutdown of the supply chain intensified, and the transfer effect of export orders will gradually appear; However, after the resumption of the supply chain, the export orders transferred to Southeast Asia will return to China. The return depends on the change of the epidemic situation and the pace of industrial chain repair.
Export comparison: (1) in the two years since the outbreak, China and Southeast Asia have twice transferred export orders caused by the suspension of the epidemic. First, in the first quarter of 2020, part of China's exports turned to Southeast Asia, and second, in the third quarter of 2021, part of Southeast Asia's exports turned to China. Except for a large number of work stoppages in China in the first quarter of 2020, the export transfer range is generally small. (2) From the HS category, China has a high degree of overlap with Southeast Asia. Mechanical and electrical products (hs84-85), base metals and their products (hs72-83), chemicals and their products (hs28-38), transportation equipment such as vehicles, ships and aircraft (hs86-89), textiles (hs50-63), plastics, rubber and their products (hs39-40) account for 76% of China's exports and 66% of Southeast Asia's exports. Subdivided into HS2, among China's top 10 export commodities, 8 commodities other than HS95 and hs73 also rank in the top 10 in ASEAN and the above five countries. (3) From the perspective of manufacturing investment, at present, Southeast Asia still lags behind China in human capital and infrastructure, and it is difficult to replace China.
Export transfer may return after the repair of the supply chain: (1) China's export transfer to Southeast Asia has not occurred in March. From January 2011 to March 2022, Vietnam's export growth rate in that month was 7.1 percentage points higher than that of China on average. In March this year, Vietnam's export growth rate was only 4.4 points higher than that of China; Shenzhen's mechanical and electrical exports decreased by 16% year-on-year in March, but the reduced orders did not turn to Southeast Asia. Vietnam's mechanical and electrical export growth in March was lower than the historical average. (2) In April, the shutdown of the supply chain increased, and the export transfer effect may gradually appear. However, after the resumption of the supply chain, the export orders will return. The return depends on the change of the epidemic situation and the repair rhythm of the industrial chain. In the third quarter of last year, under the influence of the epidemic, some exports from Southeast Asia turned to China. The proportion of Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam in global exports decreased by 0.1, 0.1 and 0.3 points respectively over the same period of last year. However, with the resumption of production and work in the fourth quarter, Malaysia's share has fully recovered, and Vietnam's share has also rebounded by 0.1 points. The survey of the China US Chamber of commerce also shows that when the impact of the epidemic is large in 2020, 15% of American enterprises said they would reduce their resource investment in China. After the economic recovery in 2021, the proportion decreased significantly to 6%.
Risk warning: ensure that the relevant policies of the supply chain are not as expected; The strength of steady growth policy is less than expected; The epidemic situation has changed greatly.
