In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic, the number of new cases per day in the world continues to decline, and the impact of the epidemic on supply is becoming weaker and weaker. In terms of economy, due to geographical conflicts, the manufacturing PMI index of the euro zone fell to 55.3% higher than expected, while the improvement of the epidemic situation made the PMI index of its service industry rise to 57.7% higher than expected; In contrast, while the U.S. manufacturing economy continues to improve, the impact of its high inflation on the service industry is further apparent. In April, the PMI of Markit manufacturing industry rose, while the PMI business activity index of the service industry fell more than expected, which also confirms that the current high inflation in the United States is more due to the impact of energy prices and brings more possibilities for the peak and fall of its inflation level.
In terms of China's environment, the epidemic situation in China has also improved, the new asymptomatic data in Shanghai have decreased significantly, and the constraints on China's implementation of the steady growth policy are weakening. At the same time, the management's care for the economy continued to advance. The central financial and Economic Commission meeting held this week stressed the need to "comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction and build a modern infrastructure system". The meeting gave clear instructions for China to continue to promote infrastructure construction: on the one hand, there is still room for infrastructure construction, "China's infrastructure does not meet the needs of national development and security"; On the one hand, we should not only calculate the economic benefits and social benefits, but also realize the "integration of economic benefits and social benefits"; In addition, the meeting also gave clear instructions on key areas of infrastructure construction and financing arrangements; The meeting not only unified the thinking of this year's demand for maintaining stability by increasing infrastructure, but also expanded the space and pointed out the direction for infrastructure investment in the coming period. On the one hand, the national standing committee meeting this week emphasizes the key supporting role of stabilizing employment, on the other hand, it pays attention to the efficient operation of transportation and logistics; If employment dominates the terminal demand, only when the active demand is insufficient can the government take the initiative and increase financial support effectively maintain demand, maintain confidence and gradually stabilize and improve the employment environment; Since the decline in the efficiency of transportation and logistics in the previous stage was mainly affected by the impact of the epidemic, in addition to actively responding to the impact, the fundamental solution to the problem is to control the development of the epidemic as soon as possible, significantly reduce the scale of new cases, and create conditions for regional unsealing and slowing down prevention and control measures.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions further rebounded, while the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index continued to decline. In the middle reaches, steel prices peaked and fell slightly, while cement prices fluctuated slightly. Upstream, the price of thermal coal fluctuated horizontally, while the prices of coking coal and coke decreased significantly, and the prices of non-ferrous metals were corrected. Among them, the price of aluminum and zinc decreased significantly, the price of precious metals also decreased slightly, and the price of crude oil fluctuated widely.
Risk tip: the epidemic development exceeded expectations
