Core view:
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 29 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The meeting pointed out that the covid-19 epidemic and the Ukrainian crisis have made China's economic development environment face new challenges, but the expected objectives of the country's annual economic and social development have not changed. We believe that under the circumstances of internal and external shocks to the economy, further economic stimulus policies must be introduced to achieve the established economic growth goals. In addition, the meeting also reaffirmed the signal that the real estate policy is further relaxed and the rectification of the platform economy is expected to come to an end. The implementation of relevant measures also helps to achieve the economic growth goal.
Key investment points:
Epidemic free economic growth target
The meeting pointed out that the covid-19 epidemic and the Ukrainian crisis made China's economic development environment face new challenges, but did not adjust the expected objectives of economic growth and social development for the whole year - the meeting continued to require "to stabilize the economy, strive to achieve the expected objectives of economic and social development for the whole year, and maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range". We believe that working towards the annual economic growth target of 5.5% is also a requirement for stabilizing employment.
Further weighting policy
The meeting called for "strengthening macro policy regulation" and "stepping up the planning of incremental policy tools", and gave specific policy guidelines in the aspects of fiscal policy, monetary policy, expanding domestic demand, commodities, ensuring smooth supply, social and people's livelihood. We believe that the follow-up monetary policy may introduce more structural policy tools, and the fiscal policy may make arrangements for the 400 billion yuan of funds not yet arranged in the government fund budget this year, whether it is used for infrastructure investment, the issuance of consumer bonds, or the implementation of subsidies to enterprises, which will be conducive to economic growth and employment stability. The acceleration of "preliminary work" in infrastructure investment will also help the investment to land as soon as possible.
The real estate policy was further relaxed
While adhering to the positioning of "housing without speculation", compared with the central economic work conference and the Political Bureau meeting at the end of 2021, this meeting further relaxed the real estate policy. In view of the current tense capital chain of real estate companies, it is also pointed out to "optimize the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds". We expect that more cities will further relax the real estate regulation policies and stimulate local real estate sales and real estate investment.
The rectification of the platform economy may come to an end
The statement of the Politburo meeting on the platform economy shows that the rectification of the platform economy may come to an end soon. Specific measures on capital "traffic lights" are also expected to be introduced. This will contribute to the increase of capital expenditure of relevant enterprises, the recovery of employment and boost economic growth.
Risk tips
The policy is inconsistent with the expectation; The economy is inconsistent with expectations; The epidemic situation has worsened outside China.
