\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 533 Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) )
Event overview
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022: in 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 368 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.5%, a month on month increase of – 4.3%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 42.3%, a month on month increase of – 23.3%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 12 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 32.3% and a month on month increase of – 1.6%.
Analysis and judgment:
Q1 revenue is in line with expectations, and the profit side is affected by disturbance factors
Revenue side: in 2022q1, the overall revenue reached 368 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.5% and a month on month increase of – 4.3%, basically in line with expectations, but it is expected to be affected by the March epidemic to a certain extent. Starting from 2022q2, the supporting models of new forces will be mass produced and contribute to the increment, and the growth rate is expected to increase quarter by quarter.
Profit side: in 2022q1, the net profit attributable to parent company was 13 million yuan, with a year-on-year ratio of – 42.3% and a month on month ratio of – 23.3%. Deducting the net profit not attributable to parent company was 12 million yuan, with a year-on-year ratio of – 32.3% and a month on month ratio of – 1.6%. The decline was expected to be mainly due to the rise in the prices of raw materials and sea freight, resulting in a year-on-year decline in gross profit margin of 6.0pct to 20.0%. Specifically:
1) price rise of raw materials: including rare earth, bulk metals and plastic particles, especially the price of rare earth neodymium + 77.6% year-on-year and + 38.2% month on month in 2022q1, which has a great impact (it began to fall since mid February); However, in view of the rise in rare earth prices, we expect the company to have a compensation mechanism with its customers, which is expected to be reflected in q2-q4, so as to hedge the impact of Q1 to a certain extent;
2) freight increase: mainly affected by covid-19 epidemic, inland freight and sea freight increased significantly, and we expect the impact to be about 04 million yuan.
Expense side: the rates of sales, management, R & D and finance of 2022q1 company are 1.7% / 7.4% / 6.7% / 0.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.0, – 1.6, + 1.6 and – 2.7pct respectively. The increase of R & D rate is mainly affected by the increase of new projects, the increase of R & D investment and the increase of employee salary, but it shows a good development prospect.
Industry expansion + market share increase and consolidate speaker base sector business
As the core carrier of human vehicle interaction (the other is vision), automotive acoustics continues to benefit from the upgrading trend of electric intelligence + consumption. It can see the long-term development for at least 10 years, with huge space. At the industry level, under the trend of electric intelligence + consumption upgrading, the volume and price of on-board speakers have increased simultaneously (the number of single vehicles + speaker technology upgrading), and the space has been expanded; At the company level, the independent leading position is stable, and the competitors are mainly overseas enterprises. Relying on the advantages of technology and global delivery, the company will further explore the European and American markets. From 2019 to 2021, the company’s global market share will be 12.1%, 12.6% and 12.9% respectively (of which the American market share will be 15.2%, 15.9% and 18.2% respectively from 2019 to 2021, close to the 19.8% market share level in China in 2021), showing a steady upward trend. The medium and long-term global market share is expected to increase to 18-20%, Continuously tamp the speaker base sector.
Loudspeaker single product to complete acoustic solution opens up broad growth space
Horizontal business expansion, from single products to complete acoustic solutions for cars (speaker + independent power amplifier + AVAs). 1) At the technical level, the independent power amplifier (5001000 yuan per car) has penetrated into the medium and low-end models, and the policy of AVAs (40-100 yuan per car) for new energy vehicles has forced the standard configuration, which has driven the supporting value of a single car to more than double that of a single speaker; 2) At the customer level, the vehicle audio system has been designated by Weilai, ideal, Huawei Jinkang and other customers. From 2022q2, it will gradually usher in a large volume. In the future, it is expected to expand to more customers by virtue of the inherent stickiness of speakers.
From hardware to software, build medium and long-term core competitiveness. The company attaches importance to the accumulation of core technology research and development, has a number of technical reserves such as acoustic product simulation and design, vehicle sound effect design, acoustic signal processing technology and digital speaker system, expands from the existing positioning to software, improves the added value of products and continues to enhance the company’s core competitiveness in the acoustic field.
Investment advice
Under the trend of electric intelligence + consumption upgrading, as the core carrier of human vehicle interaction (the other is vision), the company, as the leader of independent vehicle speakers, continues to benefit from the trend of electric intelligence and the change of procurement system. In view of the impact of the rise in the price of short-term raw materials, the profit forecast is lowered. It is expected that the company’s revenue of RMB 1.89228923769 billion from 2022 to 2024 will remain unchanged, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be adjusted from RMB 1.63/2.80/390 million to RMB 151 / 2.78/390 million, and the EPS will be adjusted from RMB 1.02/1.75/2.44 to RMB 0.94/1.74/2.44, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 42.84/share on April 29, 2022, and the PE will be 46 / 25 / 18 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The prosperity of the automobile industry is less than expected; The customer expansion of automotive electronic products is less than expected; Raw material prices continued to rise.
