\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
The company has made continuous reform actions, enhanced endogenous power and maintained the "buy" rating
The company's revenue in 2021 was 66.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.5%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.2%. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 27.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.1%. Due to the uncertain factors of the epidemic disturbance, we raised the profit forecast for 2022, lowered the profit forecast for 2023, and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 26.92 (+ 180) billion yuan, 30.99 (- 570) billion yuan and 35.54 billion yuan respectively, and EPS will be 693 (+ 0.04) yuan, 798 (- 0.15) yuan and 9.16 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 23.4, 20.3 and 17.7 times respectively, The company's subsequent salary reform and incentive mechanism are still in the process of implementation, and its internal enthusiasm is further improved to maintain the "buy" rating.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price increase is the main factor, and the growth of series liquor is accelerated
In 2021, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) revenue was 49.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.5%, sales volume was 29203 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 3.8%, the growth rate decreased compared with previous years, the actual digestion was greater than the amount confirmed in the statement, and the price per ton of wine was 1.682 million yuan / kiloliter, a year-on-year increase of + 7.4%, mainly due to the increase in unplanned prices, and classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) also contributed; In 2021, the revenue of series liquor was 12.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 50.7%, the sales volume was 152572 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 15.32%, and the price per ton of liquor was 83000 yuan / kiloliter, a year-on-year increase of + 30.7%. After sorting out the product lines and agency channels of the series of wines, it is expected that they will still perform well in 2022.
In 2022, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) still focuses on price increase and strives to improve channel profits
In order to improve the eighth generation's pricing and channel profits, the company's idea in 2022 is to Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) reduce the volume and raise the price, share the performance pressure through personalized products, and adjust the contract volume and the proportion inside and outside the plan periodically according to the market conditions. Therefore, it is judged that the price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will continue in 2022. The series of wines have been sorted out in the early stage and coordinated with Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) resources. 2022 is also one of the sources of income increment.
The gross profit margin increased, the expense rate during the period was stable, and the net profit margin increased
Benefiting from the price increase of products, the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) gross profit margin increased by + 1.19pct to 75.35% in 2021. During the period, there was little change in each item of expense rate, the tax and surcharge ratio was + 0.67pct, and the net profit margin was + 0.54pct to 37.02%. In the second half of 2021, the price of wuliangchun and other series of wines increased significantly. At the end of 2021, the price of eight generations continued to increase. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 was + 1.98pct to 78.41%, and the net profit margin was + 1.06pct to 41.28%. It is expected that the annual net profit margin will increase.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the increase of product prices is less than expected
