\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
The company gradually optimized the channel structure, steadily promoted product upgrading and maintained the “overweight” rating
In 2021, the company’s revenue was 25.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.3%. Q1 revenue in 2022 was 13.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.1%. Due to the impact of non recurring profit and loss, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 9.74 (- 450) billion yuan, 12.24 (- 270) billion yuan and 15.12 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 6.46 (- 0.30) yuan, 8.12 (- 0.18) yuan and 10.03 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 24.6, 19.6 and 15.9 times respectively. With the rationalization of the company’s channel interests and the implementation of internal incentives, the company has entered the performance release period, Maintain the “overweight” rating.
In 2021, the revenue exceeded expectations and the product structure improved significantly
In 2021, the medium and high-end revenue was 21.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.0%. The structure was significantly improved, and the growth rate of meng6 + was much higher than that of the whole. Driven by this, the gross profit margin of medium and high-grade wine is + 1.43pct; The revenue of ordinary wine was 3.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 16.1% and a gross profit margin of + 9.13 PCT. Benefiting from the upgrading of product structure and the development of double channels, the growth rate in the province was accelerated and the steady progress outside the province was made. In 2021, the income in the province was 11.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.9%, and 13.08 billion yuan outside the province, a year-on-year increase of + 21.4%.
The channel structure has been continuously optimized, and the collection speed of 2021q1 has been increased to demonstrate the channel confidence
The contractual liabilities at the end of the first quarter of 2022 were 9.76 billion yuan, an increase of 3.64 billion yuan, mainly due to the higher proportion of payment collection at the end of the first quarter than at the end of 2021q1, reflecting the improvement of dealers’ cooperation and enthusiasm after the optimization of channel structure. In 2021, the company optimized the structure and layout of dealers based on the principle of “Pro business, secure business, support business and enrich business”. By the end of 2021, the total number of dealers in China had decreased by 909 year-on-year.
The gross profit margin increases, and non recurring profits and losses affect the net profit margin
In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was + 3.05pct to 75.32%, and the expense rate during the period was 20.65%, with a year-on-year decrease of -0.70pct, which was mainly affected by the year-on-year decrease of about 1.7 billion yuan in the total profit and loss of non current items, and the net profit margin was -5.83pct to 29.64%. 2022q1 gross profit margin + 1.14pct to 77.30%, period expense rate – 1.02pct to 10.59%, net profit margin + 1.53pct to 38.29%. In 2022, the non recurring profit and loss items will be more stable, the product structure will be optimized, and the rising trend of the company’s net interest rate will be determined.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations lead to a decline in demand, and the expansion outside the province is less than expected
