\u3000\u3000 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) )
Event: on April 29, 2022, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022.
Non recurring profit and loss growth thickened performance. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 62.67 billion yuan (YoY + 0.6%), of which the real estate settlement revenue was 49.3 billion yuan (yoy-6.9%); The net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.43 billion yuan (YoY + 10.6%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 1.09 billion yuan (yoy-5.6%). The gross profit rate declined slightly. In the first quarter of 2022, the overall pre tax gross profit margin of the company was 18.9% (yoy-1.5pct), and the after tax gross profit margin was 15% (yoy-1pct), of which the pre tax gross profit margin of real estate development business was 21.8% and the after tax gross profit margin was 17.1%.
Sales fell by 40%, and the land acquisition was cautious. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a sales area of 6.327 million m3 (yoy-42.7%) and a sales amount of 106.5 billion yuan (yoy-40.7%). The sold and outstanding area is 47.762 million m3 and the amount is 738.51 billion yuan, covering 1.5/1.8 times of last year’s settlement area / revenue respectively. The total equity ratio of the first line and the second line under construction in yorongy triangle is 1.458 million (the total equity ratio of the first line and the second line under construction in yoy-9y triangle is 1.458 million), and the total equity ratio of the first line and the second line under construction in yorongy triangle is 2.058 million (the total equity ratio of the first line and the third line is 2.458 million); The full caliber amount is 17.5 billion yuan, with an investment sales ratio of 16.4%. By the end of the reporting period, 14706000m3 of construction area was under construction and planning, with an equity ratio of 62.9%. In addition, 5347000m3 of old reconstruction projects were under construction, with relatively abundant soil reserves.
The “three red lines” remain green and financing continues to develop. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, the net debt ratio of the company was 34.6%, the debt ratio excluding advances received was 69.5%, the monetary capital was 141.78 billion yuan, and the cash short debt ratio was 2.6 times. During the reporting period, the company issued 8 billion yuan of 3-year medium-term notes with a coupon rate of 2.95% – 3%; And 1.99 billion yuan of corporate bonds, of which the coupon rates of three-year and five-year varieties are 3.14% and 3.64% respectively, highlighting the advantages of financing cost.
Diversified businesses maintained steady expansion. In the first quarter, all things cloud continued to expand its market. The third party accounted for 67% of the new projects of Vanke property. All things Liangxing new obtained four super high-rise buildings above 200 meters. All things Cloud City added three urban service projects and settled in five streets. The revenue of logistics warehousing business in the first quarter was 870 million yuan (YoY + 39%), and a new project was obtained, with a leasable construction area of 54000 square meters. Four high-standard warehouses and five cold chain parks were newly opened, with a leasable construction area of 392000 square meters. Rental housing revenue in the first quarter was 700 million yuan (YoY + 12.8%), with 6000 newly expanded houses and 2600 newly opened houses. The revenue of commercial development and operation in the first quarter was 2.11 billion yuan (YoY + 17.6%), and a new asset light project was expanded, with a new management area of 160000 square meters.
Investment suggestion: in the first quarter, the company’s performance has returned to positive growth. In addition, various business formats of diversified businesses are in rapid growth, and the listing of all things cloud is on the way. We believe that if all things cloud is successfully listed, the company’s balance sheet will be greatly improved and the leverage space will also be increased. We predict that the company’s operating revenue in 22 / 23 / 24 years will be 4977.4/5279.6/544.61 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 257.1/283630.87 billion yuan, the corresponding diluted EPS will be 2.21/2.44/2.66 yuan / share, and the current stock price will correspond to the 22-year dynamic pe9.9 Seven times. We believe that the reasonable market value of the company is 308.5 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 26.5 yuan / share, corresponding to 12 times of Pe2 in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the introduction of policies was less than expected, and the improvement of gross profit margin was less than expected.
