\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
Operating performance
In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 25.35 billion yuan (+ 20.14%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.508 billion yuan (+ 0.34%); The net profit deducted from non profit was 7.373 billion yuan (+ 30.44%); Cash receipts from sales reached 36.810 billion yuan (+ 70.99%).
21q4 + 22q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 16.434 billion yuan (+ 29.33%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.280 billion yuan (+ 26.96%); The net profit deducted from non profits was 5.421 billion yuan (+ 41.60%); Cash receipts from sales reached 22.001 billion yuan (+ 27.53%).
Key investment points
How to treat the comprehensive supermarket market expectation of 21q4 + 22q1 indicators?
1) product side: focus on large single products. Dream 6 + is expected to reach 10 billion this year. In the past 21 years, the company's sales volume increased by 18.13% year-on-year to 180400 tons, and the ton price increased by 2.6% year-on-year to 133900 yuan / ton. Among them, the revenue of medium and high-grade wine and ordinary wine reached 21.521 billion yuan and 3.118 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 21.95% and 16.05%, and the proportion of medium and high-grade wine increased by 0.56 percentage points to 87.35%. In the past 21 years, the company has built a "2 + 5 + 10" leading product layout, completed the cleaning of 715 SKUs, focused on large single products, and each brand operates independently: ① meng6 +: the sales of meng6 + are good in the Spring Festival in 22 years, and meng6 + is expected to reach 10 billion this year, and the price is stable and good; ② Crystal dream: crystal dream has completed the replacement of the old and new, and the price is basically the same as that of the fourth opening. At the same time, the channel profit is restored to 30-40 yuan / bottle. High channel profit + rich channel actions lead to structural upgrading exceeding expectations and sales exceeding expectations; ③ Tianzhilan upgraded version: the upgrading of tianzhilan upgraded version is nearly completed, and the price and channel profits have increased significantly; ④ Sea blue: the upgraded version of sea blue is expected to be accelerated in the near future; ⑤ Shuanggou: the dynamic sales during the Spring Festival are strong. It is expected that Shuanggou (including Su liquor) is still expected to achieve a high growth of 50% - 60% in 22 years, and Shuanggou has become the second growth pole.
2) channel side: adjust the marketing structure and accelerate the marketing transformation. In the past 21 years, the revenues of wholesale distribution and online direct sales reached 24.274 billion yuan and 365 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 21.32% and 11.85%. In addition, the number of dealers decreased from 909 to 8142 in the past 21 years, mainly because the company focused on the building of strategic leading products and optimized the structure and layout of dealers around the principle of being close to business, ensuring business and supporting rich business.
3) market side: intensive cultivation within the province and expansion outside the province, with growth rates exceeding 20% inside and outside the province. In the past 21 years, the revenue inside and outside the province reached 11.556 billion yuan and 13.083 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.87% and 21.43%, and the proportion of revenue outside the province increased by 0.11 percentage points to 53.10%.
4) profitability: structural upgrading + cost control to promote the steady improvement of profitability. The gross profit margin and non net profit margin in the year of 21 increased by 3.05/2.30 percentage points year-on-year to 75.32% / 29.08%, and the sales expense rate / management expense rate changed by + 1.64 / - 1.19 percentage points year-on-year to 13.98% / 8.24% respectively. 22q1 gross profit margin and non net profit margin increased by 1.14/1.38 percentage points year-on-year to 77.30% / 37.60%, and the sales expense rate / management expense rate changed by + 0.28 / - 0.65 percentage points to 6.59% and 4.75% respectively.
5) trust impairment: sort out all existing trust financial products and accrue impairment. According to the announcement, as of December 4, 2001, the company has not recovered the principal of 73 million yuan and investment income of 95 million yuan of the remaining trust products in time. The company has accrued an impairment amount of 250 million yuan for the trust financial products in 21 years, which is expected to cover the amount loss of the trust products not recovered in time.
Why do we think the turning point of Yanghe River has come?
At present, the adjustment of Yanghe channel has been basically completed, and the development quality and speed have exceeded expectations, which is reflected in the progress of payment collection, the health of inventory, the progress of product upgrading and the development of markets outside the province, highlighting that the inflection point has come.
1) payment collection progress exceeds expectations: at present, the national payment collection progress is at the leading level in the industry. The "70 day storm" was held on April 21, which requires to complete the annual payment collection goal in advance, and the payment collection progress in 22 years may exceed expectations.
2) inventory health exceeds expectations: under the background of upward rating, the national inventory of dream blue is benign, and the inventory in the province is low; Sea blue and sky blue stocks also remained healthy.
3) product upgrading exceeded expectations: since this year, M6 + has achieved stable and upward price through regional accurate control of quantity and price, and can be expected to reach 10 billion in the whole year; M3 crystal version has been successfully upgraded; The Spring Festival exam shows that sky blue has high market acceptance and is in the middle and late stage of upgrading; Sea blue is about to be upgraded (positioning the price band of 150 yuan). This year, the company has completed the upgrading of all its main products, and next year will usher in a dividend release year. 4) Market development outside the province exceeded expectations: this year, the company split the region into 61 business divisions, promoted young people and improved business efficiency, including solid performance in Henan / Shandong, accelerated performance in Anhui, brilliant performance in Jiangxi, and Dream Blue Series in Northeast China.
Why are we optimistic about the high-quality development of Yanghe?
With meng6 + as the core growth pole, Shuanggou thickened its performance and helped the company's high-quality development in the 14th five year plan. We believe that the company will have two growth poles in the future: 1) meng6 + will reach 10 billion in 22 years, which is expected to become the first 10 billion single product in the sub high-end upgrade price band. 2) Shuanggou (including Su liquor) may still achieve 50% - 60% high growth in 22 years, effectively thickening its performance.
Under the background of the implementation of salary reform and equity incentive, the reform dividend is expected to be released continuously. According to the official website report and the company's announcement, the salary of all employees is increased by 800 yuan (the salary of grass-roots employees increases by more than 10%) + the shareholding plan of core backbone + improve the career rising channel of young backbone, comprehensively improve the enthusiasm of employees at all levels and promote the younger development of management team.
The impact of the short-term epidemic is limited, and we are optimistic about the high-quality growth of the whole year. As the current Baijiu is in the off-season, and the growth of Yanghe comes from the large quantity of single products rather than the expansion of investment, the superimposed haizhilan is expected to be replaced in the near future, so the impact of the epidemic is limited. The company's business goal in 2022 is to achieve a year-on-year increase of operating revenue of more than 15%. Considering that the inflection point of the company has arrived, or it is expected to exceed the goal.
Profit forecast and valuation
We believe that the impact of the short-term epidemic is limited, and we are optimistic that meng6 + high growth will lead the company's high-quality development. At present, the inflection point has arrived, and the valuation has high cost performance. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 20.8%, 18.1% and 16.1% respectively; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 28.2%, 20.8% and 17.1% respectively; EPS is 6.4, 7.7 and 9.0 yuan / share respectively; The corresponding PE is 23, 19 and 16 times respectively.
Catalyst: inventory decline and terminal price increase; Dream Blue M6 + movable pin continues to improve.
Risk tips: 1. The epidemic situation has repeatedly affected the dynamic sales of Baijiu; 2. The situation of Dream Blue M6 + movable pin was not as expected.
