\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 886 Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) )
Performance review
The company released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022 on April 28. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 43.682 billion yuan, an increase of 11.09% year-on-year, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent of 2.437 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.82% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent of 2.171 billion yuan after deduction, a decrease of 54.53% year-on-year; In 2022q1, the operating revenue was RMB 11.042 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.038 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.91%.
Business analysis
The high coal price leads to losses in the thermal power sector. It is expected that the performance will be repaired after the price adjustment of coal and electricity: the company's revenue will increase year-on-year in 2021 and the performance will decline. The main reasons are: 1) the demand for electricity is booming and the volume and price of power business rise together. The on grid power of holding units was 149451 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, and the average on grid electricity price was 0.319 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.98%. 2) The incoming water is dry, and the power generation of water and fire is reduced by 0.22% and increased by 7.03% respectively year-on-year. The price of power coal is high, the cost of power generation is upside down, and the fire electronics companies generally lose money. Affected by the above factors, the company's gross profit margin was 29.26%, down 15.61pcts year-on-year. The measures taken by the national development and Reform Commission to regulate the price of electric coal have been implemented one after another, the on grid price of coal and electricity has increased, and the price of power coal has fallen. It is expected that the performance of thermal power sector will be repaired. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 company was 35.47%, rising month on month.
Lianghekou and Yangfanggou hydropower stations were put into operation, and the proportion of clean energy increased to help optimize gross profit: 10 units of Liangyang hydropower station, with a total of 4.5 million KW, were put into operation in March 22. Fengguang added 401000 kW of installed capacity, accounting for 67.2%, an increase of 4.53 PCTs year-on-year. The optimization of power supply structure helps to reduce the uncertain impact of thermal power performance, give play to the advantage of low marginal cost of clean energy power generation, and improve the profitability of the company.
Investment advice
From 2022 to 2024, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.65/72.6/7.62 billion yuan, EPS of 0.89/0.97/1.02 yuan and corresponding PE of 11 / 10 / 9 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The incoming water is dry, the price of thermal coal remains high, the demand for electricity is less than expected, the increase of on grid electricity price is less than expected, and the construction cost of new hydropower station is higher than expected.
