\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
Release the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 25.4 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.51 billion yuan, an increase of 0.34% (mainly due to the impact of changes in Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) fair value), and a net profit excluding non attributable to the parent company of 7.37 billion yuan, an increase of 30.4%. The revenue side exceeded the annual 15% growth plan. The gross profit margin was 75.32%, increased by 3.05pct at the same time, and the ton price of Baijiu increased by 2.7% at the same time. The upward movement of product structure led to the upward movement of gross profit margin; The sales / management expense ratio was 13.98% / 8.24% respectively, with an increase of 1.64 PCT / a decrease of 1.19 PCT; The sales collection was 36.81 billion yuan, an increase of 71% at the same time; The balance of contract liabilities was 15.8 billion yuan, an increase of 7 billion yuan over the end of the 20th year.
Q4 alone achieved a revenue of 2.31 billion yuan, an increase of 55.8% at the same time, helping to overfulfil the revenue task in the whole year. The sales expense rate of Q4 was 39.37%, an increase of 19.41pct at the same time, pushing up the sales expense rate of the whole year.
In Q1 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 13.03 billion yuan, an increase of 23.8%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.9 billion yuan, an increase of 29.1%, a gross profit margin of 77.30%, and an increase of 1.14 PCT; The sales / management expense ratio was 6.59% / 4.75% respectively, with an increase of 0.28 PCT / a decrease of 0.65 PCT; Cash receipts were 8 billion yuan, down 15.1% from the same period, and the balance of contract liabilities was 9.77 billion yuan, down 6.03 billion yuan from the end of the 21st century.
M6 + continued to grow rapidly, and the foreign exchange volume of Shuanggou investment increased. In the 21st year, M6 + is expected to achieve a sales return of about 6 billion yuan, anchor the sub high-end challenge price, benefit from the upgrading of consumption in the province + the rapid growth of foreign exchange outside the province. Since 22 years, the price has fluctuated slightly, the transaction price in the province has remained 600 yuan +, the inventory under the quota system has remained at the level of about one month, and it is expected to continue the rapid growth in 22 years, with a target of 10 billion single products. Haizhilan is about to be launched. So far, it has completed the “digital control and profit sharing marketing reform” of all leading products of blue classic (except M9 manual class of high-end business division); In addition, Shuanggou has been operating independently for 21 years, deepening Jiangsu and Henan, and attracting investment around Shandong and Hebei outside the province. The 22 years will also provide a significant supplement to the performance. The company’s annual report puts forward the revenue growth target of 15% in 2022. Based on the rapid growth in the first quarter, it is expected to successfully complete the tasks of the whole year.
The impact of the epidemic is generally controllable, and it is still advancing at the established pace throughout the year. Recently, the areas affected by the epidemic are mainly in southern Jiangsu and Suqian in the province. The personnel flow between prefectures and cities is limited to a certain extent. The consumption scenes such as hall food in other prefectures and cities in the province are normal. The impact of mobile sales in the off-season is controllable, mainly digesting inventory. After the Spring Festival in 2022, the company will promote the organizational flattening reform, which will further improve the decision-making efficiency of the company. 2022 is the second and last assessment year of the company’s equity incentive. All employees of the company are highly motivated and still promote according to the established rhythm.
Investment suggestion: the company’s performance in the first quarter of 2022 achieved rapid growth, and has basically completed product, organization, marketing and other reforms. The reform dividend is to be released. We believe that the company has opened a new round of enterprise business cycle driven by personnel cycle + product life cycle. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 30.4/35.4/40.4 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 10 / 12.5/14.7 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price will be 24 / 19 / 16x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) economic fluctuations exceed expectations, affect the demand of secondary high-end price, and squeeze the growth space of dream series; 2) The intensified competition in the core market inside or outside the province caused the dynamic sales of leading products to be less than expected; 3) The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
