\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 080 Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) )
Event: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 842 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.59%. Among them, Q4 revenue was 177 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 36 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.48%. 2022q1 revenue of 330 million yuan, the same as + 46.61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 85 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.82%. The annual report of the year 21 was in line with expectations, and the performance of the first quarter of the year 22 exceeded expectations under the pressure of the epidemic.
TPU mattresses, the company’s main product, continue to be sold in large quantities, and other outdoor products can be expected in the future. By product: in 2021, the company’s air bed, luggage, headrest cushion and other categories were 636 million yuan, 111 million yuan, 55.71 million yuan and 40.15 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 47%, 60%, 37% and 4.66% respectively. The main product air bed has a good growth momentum. In terms of air bed products, the volume and price of TPU mattresses with high-end positioning have increased simultaneously, which is the main force of revenue growth: among air bed products, the revenue of TPU mattresses with high-end positioning has accounted for 72%, which has further increased by 4 points, and the unit price of TPU products has increased by more than 30%; The revenue of PVC products accounted for 28%, and the sales volume decreased slightly, but the unit price increased significantly. Compared with PVC materials, TPU has superior performance and environmental protection, and there is still a large space for substitution in the future. The company has accumulated profound technology and long-term production experience in the field of TPU materials, and will make great achievements in the future. In terms of other products, the company has developed more new products around outdoor products combined with its own good hot fusion technology. The new products are in the stage of debugging and climbing in 21 years, and more products are expected to be released in 22 years.
In terms of customers, the release of the company’s production capacity helps customers develop and optimize the customer structure. In 2021, the company’s largest customer is still decathlon, with a sales revenue of 244 million yuan, accounting for 28.98% of the revenue. The revenue growth rate remains at a high level of 29%, but the revenue proportion further decreases. The revenue of the company’s second to fifth customers accounted for 15.22%, further improving. We believe that decathlon is the company’s largest customer, and the strategic cooperative relationship between the company and this customer is conducive to the stability of large orders. However, the diversification of customer structure is the way of growth. The company has been subject to production capacity in the past few years, and the expansion of other customers is not smooth. New production capacity projects such as raised investment projects help the company develop new customers, and the diversification of customer structure will ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the company.
In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s appearance in China was under pressure, the trend of high growth was not reduced, and there were sufficient orders at the end of the quarter. In the first quarter, the international war affected the logistics and freight links, and the spread of the epidemic in China affected the production. Under the adverse situation, the company’s revenue still increased by 47%. On the one hand, the demand side of the outdoor industry continued to boom, on the other hand, it benefited from the company’s comprehensive arrangement of production and shipment. At present, the company has about 500 million orders in hand, and has stable cooperation with major customers. There are still new orders in the follow-up, and the annual order volume is guaranteed.
The profitability of the company is maintained at a high level, and the product structure is the main help. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 38.75% (the products of air bed, luggage, headrest cushion and others were 42.66%, 26.42%, 28.67% and 24.71% respectively), and the caliber of the statement decreased by 2.01pct. Considering the impact of the new accounting standards, the caliber is expected to decrease slightly, mainly due to the impact of raw material prices and exchange rates, but to a lesser extent. The sales rate is 1.37%, the management expense rate is 8.64%, and the expense rate is optimized by 0.96 PCT in total. The net interest rate in the 21st year was 26.06%, down 1.73%, but still remained at a high position. In 2022, Q1 company’s comparable gross profit margin decreased slightly by 3.6 percentage points, but under the condition of continuous optimization of expenses, the profit margin finally decreased only slightly. We believe that the company’s barriers in TPU composite fabrics and hot-melt bonding technology can help the company maintain a high profit margin, and the optimization of the company’s product structure can also help the company overcome the pressure of raw materials.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we believe that the company has outstanding advantages in the field of outdoor products manufacturing. At present, the industry boom continues and the company has sufficient orders on hand. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 310, 396 and 495 million yuan respectively, and EPS will be 307, 391 and 489 yuan respectively. At present, the corresponding PE of the stock price is 20.64, 16.17 and 12.93 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, the price of raw materials rose more than expected, the price of sea freight rose more than expected, and the RMB exchange rate appreciated greatly.
