\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
The performance in 2021 was 8.2 billion yuan and that in 2022q1 was 5.194 billion yuan. The company announced the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 63.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, a attributable net profit of 8.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.5%, and a net operating cash flow of 7.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 151.8%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 24.685 billion (YoY + 132.5%, QoQ + 47%), the attributable net profit was 5.194 billion (YoY + 513%, QoQ + 129.5%), and the operating net cash flow was 3.25 billion (YoY + 92.8%). The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.12 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a total amount of 4.105 billion yuan.
Silicon material has high profit and high start-up rate of battery. In 2021, the company's silicon business revenue was 18.76 billion yuan (+ 186%) and the gross profit margin was 66.7% (+ 32pcts), which constituted the main performance drivers. In 2021, the sales volume and price of silicon materials of the company increased. The sales volume was 108000 tons (+ 24.3%), and the average ex factory price was 173000 yuan / ton (+ 81%), of which the equity output of silicon materials in 2021 was about 100000 tons, and the estimated net profit per ton was more than 70000. In 2021, the company's battery and module revenue was 24.93 billion yuan (+ 60.9%), and the gross profit margin was 8.81% (- 573 PCTs). In 2021, the company's sales volume was 34.93gw (+ 57.6%), basically making full use of production and sales, and the estimated capacity utilization rate was more than 99%, of which 182 / 210 large-scale capacity accounted for 70% - 80%. In 2021, the company's non silicon cost of perc battery is lower than 0.18 yuan / w (- 11%), and it still maintains a certain profitability during the period when the overall profit of battery is under pressure. It is estimated that the profit per watt of battery is about 1.6-1.7 points.
Announce the implementation of capacity planning, and the completion progress is good. In February 2020, during the low price period of silicon materials, the company disclosed the 20202023 development plan for high purity crystalline silicon and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery business, and made a four-year capacity plan, focusing on the capacity construction of silicon materials and battery chips. Among them, it is planned that the capacity of silicon material and battery chip will reach 22 Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate&Properties (Group).Co.Ltd(000029) 0000 tons and 80-100gw respectively in 2023. By the end of 2021, the company has actually built a silicon material production capacity of 180000 tons and a battery chip production capacity of 45gw, realizing the annual planning goal of 2021. At present, the company is building a capacity of 170000 tons of silicon material, which is expected to be put into operation from 2022 to 2023 to achieve the silicon material capacity target. The capacity of battery cells under construction is 15.5gw, and the capacity target of battery cells will be completed after adding other proposed capacity.
The balance sheet is stable, and long orders fully support the development of production capacity. As of 2022q1, the company's asset liability ratio was 52.26%, including 24.15% interest bearing liability ratio including convertible bonds, and the current ratio and quick ratio reached 1.62 and 1.38. The balance sheet has room for expansion. The company has signed a long-term agreement order for silicon materials, with an average annual demand of 200000 tons, and has a customer base for capacity expansion.
The performance increased significantly in the first quarter, and the annual profit is expected to remain high. In 2022q1, the company's profit increased greatly. It is estimated that the shipment of silicon equity in a single quarter is about 40000 tons (+ 70%), and the shipment of battery chips reaches 9.4gw (+ 96%). It is estimated that the ex factory price of silicon material in the first quarter is about 201000 yuan / ton (+ 160%), and the profit per ton will reach 11 Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) 0000 yuan / ton. The increase of silicon output and price drives the performance growth of 2022q1. It is expected that the price of silicon material is expected to run at a high level throughout the year, with the price center of about 160000180000 yuan / ton, and the annual equity shipment of silicon material of the company reaches 15 Konka Group Co.Ltd(000016) 0000 tons.
Profit forecast. Based on the assumptions of high price of silicon materials, high growth of shipments of silicon materials and battery chips and slight repair of battery chip profits, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 113.6 billion, 111.3 billion and 124.9 billion from 2022 to 2024, and realize attributable net profits of 16.35 billion, 13.47 billion and 14.18 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 99%, - 17% and 5.26%. EPS is 3.63 yuan, 2.99 yuan and 3.15 yuan respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio PE is 11 times, 13 times and 12 times respectively. The company is a leading enterprise in photovoltaic silicon materials and photovoltaic cells, with better cost control ability and capacity first mover advantage. The three-year compound growth rate is about 20%. It is given a reasonable P / E ratio of 12-15 times this year and a reasonable range of 43.6-54.5 yuan to maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the price of silicon material has fallen sharply, the installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the time point of production capacity launch is delayed, the profit of battery chips continues to be under pressure, the development process of new technology is delayed, the energy consumption index is limited, and the price of raw materials has risen sharply
