\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 116 Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) )
Performance review
On April 28, 2022, the company announced that the revenue of Q1 in 2022 was 480 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 120%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 87.7%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 95 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 111.7%, the gross profit margin was 32.1%, and decreased by 0.6% compared with 21q4. After deducting 19.8% of non net interest rate, the chain decreased by 1.3% compared with 21q4.
Business analysis
The performance was in line with expectations, and the profit per ton of 22q1 increased. We expect that the slurry shipment of 22q1 company is about 10500 tons, which remains unchanged month on month. The average price of 22q1 is about 45700 yuan / ton, and the average price increases by 20% month on month compared with 21q4. It is expected that the non net profit deducted per ton of 22q1 company is 9100 yuan / ton, which increases by 11000 yuan / ton month on month mainly due to NMP price transmission and product structure optimization. We expect the company's shipments to be flat month on month, mainly due to the deferred demand of Holiday & Head battery manufacturers, and 22q2 is expected to meet the heavy volume.
The production capacity is accelerated and the share is increasing. According to GGII, in 2021, the sales volume of carbon tube conductive agent was 78000 tons, accounting for 43.4% of the company's market share. In 2021, the new conductive agent in the industry was 98000 tons, accounting for 33.6% of the company's market share, an increase of 1.3% over 2020. In 2021, the company's existing powder production capacity is about 2000 tons. 22q3 is expected to add 6000 tons of powder for IPO project. 50000 tons of conductive slurry, 5000 tons of conductive plastic masterbatch and 3000 tons of carbon tube purification and processing of Jiangsu project have completed the capping of the main structure, and 22q4 is expected to be put into operation gradually.
The R & D & process is leading, and the product structure is expected to be optimized. The company continues to take the lead in carbon tube products. The ultra long directional carbon nanotube array has entered the trial production, and the single wall and double wall have entered the pilot stage. The company continues to develop dispersion, purification and NMP recovery technologies. At present, the company is selling three generations of carbon tube slurry products, and the first to third generations are expected to account for 60%, 30% and 10% respectively. High generation products have a premium (the average price of the third generation is about 60000 yuan / ton, and that of the first generation is 30000 yuan / ton). With the large volume of high generation products, the company's profitability is expected to improve.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The company is expected to be in a leading position in terms of optimizing the scale and technology of its products, and is expected to be a leader in the promotion of carbon production and technology. We adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 625 million, RMB 1144 million and RMB 1.63 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 270, RMB 493 and RMB 703, corresponding to PE of 45, 24.6 and 17.3 times, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk tips
The downstream demand is lower than the expected risk, the risk of deterioration of the industrial competition pattern, the company's capacity construction is lower than the expected risk, the new customer expansion is lower than the expected risk, and the convertible bond risk.
