\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 117 China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) )
The company announces 21fy annual report and 22q1 quarterly report. The income of 21fy was 137.9 billion, yoy + 25%, 15% higher than that of 19fycagr; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 4.6 billion, yoy + 27%, which is + 23% compared with 19fy CAGR; Deduct the net profit of non return to parent company of RMB 3.5 billion, yoy + 3%, which is + 11% compared with 19fy CAGR. The corresponding 21q4 company revenue is 47.4 billion, yoy + 9%, which is + 7% compared with 19q4 CAGR; Net profit attributable to parent company is 1.7 billion, yoy + 96%, which is + 68% compared with 19q4 CAGR; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 700 million, yoy + 4%, compared with 19q4 CAGR + 21%. 21q4 more non recurring profits and losses are mainly from the non operating income of Chengda Company (income from changes in fair value and reversal of estimated liabilities in the previous period). 22q1 company revenue 35.5 billion, yoy + 41%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 1 billion, yoy + 20%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1 billion, yoy + 21%. The results of 21fy and 22q1 deduction were generally in line with expectations.
The high growth of income has continuity, and the profitability will gradually warm up
21fy’s revenue from chemical engineering / Infrastructure / environmental governance / industry / modern service industry is 1079 / 142 / 29 / 7 / 4 billion respectively, yoy is + 29% / – 14% / 129% / 70% / 40% respectively. Chemical engineering continues to increase, infrastructure revenue is greatly disturbed by individual large projects, the technical transformation capacity of caprolactam project and high demand are booming, and the Indonesian power station enters the operation period, driving the high increase of industrial revenue. There are sufficient orders on hand. At the end of 21fy, the contract value on hand of the company was 281.1 billion (about 2.0x revenue in the same period); The newly signed high growth in 22q1 further consolidated the foundation for rapid income growth. The high growth in 22q1 income supported the strong growth momentum of the company.
21fy company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 9.9%, yoy-1.6pct; The quarterly gross profit rates were -22qyot-1.7% and -21qyo1.7% respectively. In terms of business, the gross profit margin of Chemical Engineering / Infrastructure / environmental governance / industry / modern service industry of 21fy company is 9.5% / 6.9% / 12.1% / 17.2% / 5.2% respectively, and yoy is – 2.4 / – 0.3 / + 2.1 / + 2.2 / – 0.7pct respectively. The overall gross profit margin of 21fy and 22q1 company continues to be under pressure. We speculate that it is mainly due to the rising cost of materials such as steel / epidemic prevention. In addition, the rise of coal price may also have a negative impact on the profitability of power stations in Indonesia, Or both are partial phased effects. The effect of fee control is obvious (the expense rate yoy during 21fy / 22q1 is – 0.4 / – 1.0pct to 5.9% / 4.2% respectively), and the impairment drag is significantly reduced (the proportion of 21fy impairment loss in revenue yoy-0.5pct to 0.3%, 22q1 is a positive contribution to profit), which can better hedge the negative impact of the decline of gross profit margin. 21fy / 21q4 / 22q1 company’s net interest rate deducted from non parent company is 2.5% / 1.6% / 2.7%, yoy respectively – 0.6 / – 0.0 / – 0.5pct, and the subsequent profitability may recover gradually.
The balance sheet continues to consolidate, and the cash flow situation better reflects the characteristics of the company’s growth acceleration
At the end of 22q1, the company’s asset liability ratio was 70.2%, yoy-0.1%; The interest bearing debt ratio is 6.4%, yoy-0.2pct. 21fy / 22q1 company’s two fund turnover days are 143 / 162 days and yoy – 0 / – 14 days respectively, and the turnover continues to accelerate. We believe that under the background of high income growth, the cash cost expenditure is higher than that in the previous period, and the net cash flow inflow of 21fy / 22q1 operating activities is weaker than that in the previous period; Industrial projects have entered the capital expenditure intensive period, and the net outflow scale of cash flow from investment activities has expanded year-on-year; We believe that the cash flow situation better reflects the acceleration of the company’s growth.
Nylon new material project is about to be fully put into operation, optimistic about the transformation prospect and maintain the “buy” rating
Maintaining the 22 / 23 profit forecast in the early stage, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is 6 / 79 / 9 billion respectively, yoy respectively + 30% / 31% / 14%. The nylon new material project is about to be put into full operation, and the industrialization prospect of more industrial projects in the future is also worth paying attention to (aerogel gel, waste hydrogen production / storage, etc.). The company is expected to change in the “14th five year plan”. Maintain the company’s target price of 16.22 yuan, corresponding to the company’s 22-year PE 16x, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: adiponitrile project commissioning / sales risk; Transformation execution is lower than expected; Impairment risk
