\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
The sales volume fell year-on-year due to the impact of the epidemic, and the structural upgrading promoted the ton price. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved revenue of 9.21 billion yuan (+ 3.1%) and product sales of 2.13 million kiloliters (- 2.7%), mainly due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in March. The sales volume of the main brand is about 1.3 million kiloliters (+ 5.1%), and the sales volume of Laoshan brand is about 830000 kiloliters (- 12.6%). The price of Q1 ton of the company in 22 years is 4325 yuan / kiloliter (+ 6.1%), and the structure upgrade is obvious. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter was about 1.126 billion yuan (+ 10.2%), deducting non net profit of 1.022 billion yuan (+ 17.1%).
The rise in costs and freight costs led to a slight decline in gross profit margin, proper cost control and stable profitability. Affected by the rise of raw material prices and freight charges, the operating cost of the company in Q1 in 22 years increased by 3.9% year-on-year, faster than the revenue growth, resulting in a slight decrease in the gross profit margin of the company to 37.9% (- 0.47pct) in the first quarter. Various expenses were properly controlled. The marketing expenses decreased by 5.48% year-on-year, and the marketing rate decreased by about 1.25 PCT to 14.20%; Administrative expenses increased by 4.52% year-on-year, and the rate remained stable year-on-year. Affected by the year-on-year decline in the rate, the company’s non attributable net profit margin of Q1 deduction in 22 years achieved 11.1% (+ 0.9pct) and remained high and stable.
The epidemic has a short-term negative impact on sales, and the sales environment in the peak season is stable, which is expected to make up for the decline gap. In the past 22 years, the company continued to maintain high-end brand publicity, focused on the Beijing Winter Olympics, gave full play to the brand and quality advantages of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) and continued to improve the brand influence through Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) series of promotion activities. The beer industry has entered the peak season since the weather warmed up in May. The sales volume in March and April accounts for a low proportion of the whole year. With the dominant market with a large sales volume led by the Shandong base Market recovering gradually from the impact of the epidemic, the company will usher in a more stable external sales environment in the peak season. Combined with the rebound of residents’ consumption after the contact of epidemic control, it is expected to make up for the decline in sales volume caused by epidemic control in March and April.
Risk warning: the upgrading of product structure is not as expected; Increased cost volatility; The impact of the epidemic has intensified.
Investment advice: maintain the “buy” rating.
The company has obvious advantages in brand and quality. In the long run, the high-end trend is highly deterministic, which helps the company achieve steady profit growth under the market background of peak sales; In the short term, the decline in sales volume caused by the epidemic in March and April is expected to be replenished in the peak season. The price increase will hedge the cost pressure and is expected to be transmitted step by step. If the subsequent cost falls, it may release the profit elasticity more than expected. We maintain the previous profit forecast unchanged, and expect EPS to reach 2.48/3.04/3.32 yuan from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to 31.5/25.7/23.5 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
