\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 77 Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) )
Event: the company released the annual report and the first quarterly report. In 2021, the revenue was 412 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.72%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 201 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.38%. In 2022q1, the revenue was 173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 91 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 183.83%.
Price reduction has become the main reason for the decline of the company’s performance in 21 years. The company achieved a revenue of 412 million yuan (YoY + 5.7%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 201 million yuan (yoy-13.4%). In terms of business, the company’s carbon fiber business revenue is 320 million yuan (YoY + 18.3%), accounting for 77.6%; Carbon fiber fabrics grew rapidly, with a revenue of 92 million yuan (YoY + 53.4%), accounting for 22.41%. The company’s annual income increase without profit increase is mainly affected by the policy and market environment. The specific reasons are as follows:
1) postponement of VAT refund. In 2020, other income was 46 million yuan, including 14 million yuan of current profit and loss carried forward from subsidies for scientific research projects and 32 million yuan of value-added tax exemption and rebate. In comparison, other income in 2021 was 12 million yuan, mainly government subsidies of 11 million yuan, and no return of value-added tax has been received yet. However, among the deferred income of the company, 32 million yuan of government subsidies are related to assets and income, and some of them are expected to be included in profits and losses in the medium and short term, so as to thicken the performance of the company.
2) the price of products is reduced, and the gross profit margin of the company is under pressure. According to the announcement, the sales volume of carbon fiber and its fabric of the company in the current period was 156.06 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 34.35%, but the revenue increased by only 5.7%. It is estimated that the average price of carbon fiber and its fabric of the company in 21 years was about 2.64 million / ton, a decrease of 21.3%. As a result, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for 21 years was 77.1%, down 6.8pct year-on-year, including 76.6% (yoy-7.6pct) of carbon fiber gross profit margin and 78.8% (yoy-3.6pct) of carbon fiber fabric gross profit margin.
22q1 expense rate dropped sharply, contributing to high performance growth. Affected by the price reduction, the revenue of 21q4 company was 111 million yuan (yoy-13.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 56 million yuan (yoy-44.2%). 22q1 revenue was 173 million yuan (YoY + 135.9%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 91 million yuan (YoY + 183.8%), and the comprehensive gross profit margin continued to decline, about 69.2% (yoy-8.9pct, qoq-7.8pct). In this context, the company’s expense ratio decreased significantly during the period, about 6.2% (yoy-31pct), the overall profitability was improved, and helped Q1 achieve high profit growth.
The production capacity matches the order demand, and the company can expect rapid growth in the future. In 2021, the company signed 640 million orders with customer a, of which 360 million have been fulfilled, and 280 million will be delivered in 2022. In addition, the company announced 2.17 billion large orders (including tax) for carbon fiber and carbon fiber fabric in March 22, which will be delivered successively from 2022 to 2023, which is expected to significantly increase the company’s performance. In terms of production capacity, in 2021, on the one hand, the company completed the equivalence verification of 1000 t / a domestic T700 Carbon fiber expansion project and has batch production capacity. On the other hand, the company added carbon fiber fabric equipment, which has doubled the production capacity of carbon fiber fabric compared with 2020. At the same time, it added carbon fiber fabric equipment, which has doubled the production capacity of carbon fiber fabric compared with 2020.
The third phase of the project will reach production capacity in the future, and there will be no worry about sustainable growth. At the beginning of 2022, the company raised 1.99 billion yuan to invest in high-performance carbon fiber and fabric products and supplement working capital. After completion, the company has an annual output of 1500 tons (12K) of high-performance carbon fiber and fabric products or 400 tons of 3K products. The construction period of the project is 4 years. After the project is completed, it can add 1.72 billion yuan of income and 750 million yuan of net profit. The downstream demand of the company’s products is strong. According to the received demand letter from downstream customers, the demand for relevant products has approached or reached the planned capacity of phase III project, and there is no worry about rapid growth in the future.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 495 million yuan, 694 million yuan and 877 million yuan, EPS will be 113 million yuan, 158 million yuan and 2 million yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 38x, 27x and 22x, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: changes in preferential tax policies, changes in downstream demand and downside risks of gross profit margin.
