\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 548 Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) )
Event: the company recently released its 2021 annual report and its 22nd quarterly report. In 2021, the revenue will reach 4.867 billion yuan, an increase of 19.61% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -989 million yuan, 132 million yuan in the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was -538 million yuan, up from 87 million yuan in the same period of last year. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 1.069 billion yuan, with a decrease of 14.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was – 148 million yuan, up from 193145 million yuan in the same period last year; Operating net cash flow: 100.9 million yuan; The basic earnings per share is -0.17 yuan. Comments are as follows:
The business volume of pig raising increased and the cost decreased, and the trend was good. In the first quarter, the company sold 335800 pigs, an increase of 55.01%. Among them, the number of fat pigs / piglets / breeding pigs is 24.48/8.0810200 respectively. At the end of the first quarter, the productive biological assets were 173 million yuan, an increase of 3.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 53%. According to the stock of pigs and sows, we expect the company to sell 1.3-1.4 million pigs in 2022, an increase of 25 +% at the same time. According to the survey, the comprehensive cost of pig breeding in the first quarter was 17.49 yuan / kg, a decrease of about 0.5 yuan / kg compared with the previous quarter. There are three main reasons for the sinking of the breeding cost side: 1) change the production mode, withdraw from the entrusted breeding mode since Q4 in 21, and implement the integrated mode of self breeding and self breeding; 2) The new capacity has been completed and put into operation successively, and the capacity utilization rate has been improved; 3) Eliminate inefficient sows and improve production efficiency. It is expected that in the second quarter and the second half of the year, with the improvement of management and information level, the breeding cost side of the company will further sink.
The feed business grew steadily. In the first quarter of 2022, the external sales volume of feed business was 147000 tons, compared with 138000 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 7% at the same time, and the growth rate of the industry was 1.6%. After simple calculation, the net profit of feed business is 14.9 million yuan, and the profit per ton is about 101 yuan. Last year, the profit per ton was about 105 yuan, basically the same.
The three expenses decreased significantly year-on-year, making the performance exceed expectations. 22 / Q1, the management fee is 556215 million yuan, with a decrease of 60.84%. The decrease in management expenses is mainly due to the improvement of management level and the reduction of institutions, personnel and equity incentive expenses. In addition, the sales / R & D expenses were 1380 / 1576 respectively, with a decrease of 11.14% / 31.48%; The financial expenses were 30.43 million yuan, an increase of 0.99% at the same time; The three expenses totaled 1156246 million yuan, a decrease of 950805 million yuan over the same period last year. The three expense rate was 16.37%, down 9.83 percentage points from the same period last year.
The company focuses on breeding, the advantages of mode and cost are gradually accumulated, the market share may increase steadily, and it is recommended to buy. Recently, the company successfully stripped off non main business assets such as yinghuaxun and Huayang dynamic insurance, and effectively disposed of most of the goodwill risks. By the end of 21 / Q4, the book value of goodwill was 98.29 million yuan, down 67% from the previous quarter. It is expected that by the end of 22 / Q2, due to the completion of the delivery of assets such as Huayang dynamic insurance, the book value of goodwill will continue to decline significantly, and the future performance growth will no longer be affected by goodwill. The company focuses on “breeding + feed”. We are optimistic about its new model of building breeding and its advantages in breeding resources, building breeding and management improvement. In the future, the cost advantage will gradually expand. We expect that the pig price will enter an upward cycle in the second half of 2022, and the company’s breeding business will fully benefit from it. The performance flexibility will appear and the “buy” rating will be given. It is estimated that the company will sell 1.35/2.05 million pigs in 22 / 23 years, with a net profit attributable to the mother of 139 / 590 million yuan. According to the performance of 23 years, 12 times PE is given, and the target price in the next year is 10.24 yuan, 65 +% space from the current price.
Risk tip: the trend of pig price is less than expected, and the progress of the project is less than expected
